Political Party Preference Survey in November - Political party preferences
Political party preferences in November 2021
Statistical news from Statistics Sweden 2021-12-08 9.30
The Political Party Preference Survey shows in which demographic groups the political parties have their greatest support. Political party preference does not refer to any specific political level and no account is taken of whether or not a person would vote. This survey also presents the EU and euro preferences of the electorate.
On 2 December, Statistics Sweden published estimates of election results, if an election had been held in November 2021. Based on the same survey, estimates of political party preferences in the electorate are presented here. Political party preference refers to the political party that a person prefers the most, which is not necessarily the same as the political party they would vote for in a parliamentary election.
The difference between the measurements is:
- Political Party Preference (preferred party) does not refer to any specific political level, such as parliamentary elections, and no account is taken of whether or not a person would vote.
- The “Election Today” estimate refers to the results of an election in November. These calculations of the results take into account whether or not the person would vote.
Political party preferences are compared below with election results in a hypothetical parliamentary election in November 2021.
| Party | Party preference | "Election today" | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Percent | Margin of error | Percent | Margin of error | ||
|
C
|
8.5 | ±0.8 | 8.4 | ±0.7 | |
|
L
|
3.0 | ±0.5 | 2.5 | ±0.4 | |
|
M
|
22.4 | ±1.1 | 22.7 | ±1.1 | |
|
KD
|
4.4 | ±0.6 | 4.6 | ±0.6 | |
|
S
|
30.1 | ±1.2 | 29.1 | ±1.2 | |
|
V
|
9.6 | ±0.7 | 9.2 | ±0.7 | |
|
MP
|
4.0 | ±0.6 | 3.9 | ±0.6 | |
|
SD
|
17.0 | ±1.0 | 18.6 | ±1.0 | |
|
Other
|
1.0 | ±0.3 | 1.1 | ±0.3 | |
The table appendix of the Political Party Preference Survey November 2021 publication presents political party preference among different groups in the population of eligible voters. Changes and the distribution of political party preferences by sex, age, country of birth, and educational attainment for each party are commented below. Estimates in parentheses refer to results in the previous survey.
Political party preferences in November 2021
Centre Party (C)
In November 2021, 8.5 ± 0.8 percent of eligible voters stated that they prefer the Centre Party the most. This is not a statistically significant change compared with May 2021 (8.6 ± 0.7 percent).
Support for the Centre Party is greater among women than among men. There are no clear differences between different age groups, nor are there any differences in support between persons born in Sweden and foreign born persons. In terms of educational attainment, the proportion of supporters is largest among those with a post-secondary education and lowest among those with compulsory education.
All changes compared with May 2021 with regard to sex, age, country of birth, and educational attainment lie within the margin of uncertainty.
Liberal Party (L)
In November 2021, 3.0 ± 0.5 percent of eligible voters stated that they prefer the Liberal Party. This is not a statistically significant change compared with May 2021 (2.7 ± 0.4 percent).
There are no differences between the sexes with regard to support for the Liberal Party in November 2021. There are no clear differences between different age groups, nor are there any differences in support between persons born in Sweden and foreign born persons. In terms of educational attainment, the proportion of people who support the party is greater among those with a post-secondary education than among those with a shorter education.
Compared with May 2021, support for the Liberal Party has increased among people aged 50-64 years and among people with a post-secondary education, at least three years. Any other changes lie within the margin of uncertainty.
Moderate Party (M)
In November 2021, 22.4 ± 1.1 percent of eligible voters stated that they prefer the Moderate Party the most. This is not a statistically significant change compared with May 2021 (22.1 ± 1.0 percent).
There are no differences between the sexes with regard to support for the Moderate Party. Support for the Moderate Party is greater among people aged 18-29 years than among persons aged 65 and older. Support for the Moderate Party is greater among persons born in Sweden than among foreign born persons. In terms of educational attainment, the proportion of those who support the party is greater among those with a post-secondary education than among those with a shorter education.
All changes compared with May 2021 with regard to sex, age, country of birth, and educational attainment lie within the margin of uncertainty.
Christian Democrats (KD)
In November 2021, 4.4 ± 0.6 percent of the electorate stated that they prefer the Christian Democrats. This is not a statistically significant change compared with May 2021 (4.4 ± 0.6 percent).
There are no differences between the sexes with regard to support for the Christian Democrats in November 2021. Furthermore, there are no clear differences between different age groups. The Christian Democrats have greater support among persons born in Sweden than among foreign born persons. There are no clear differences in support based on educational attainment.
Compared with May 2021, support for the Christian Democrats has increased among persons with a post-secondary education, at least three years. Any other changes lie within the margin of uncertainty.
Social Democratic Party (S)
In November 2021, 30.1 ± 1.2 percent of the electorate stated that they prefer the Social Democratic Party the most. This is not a statistically significant change compared with May 2021 (29.9 ± 1.2 percent).
Support for the Social Democratic Party was greater among women than among men in November 2021. People aged 50 years and older to a greater extent support the Social Democratic Party, compared with younger people aged 18-29 years. The Social Democratic Party has most support among people aged 65 years and older. The Social Democratic Party has greater support among foreign born persons than among persons born in Sweden. Support for the Social Democratic Party is greater among persons with compulsory education than among those with post-secondary education.
Compared with May 2021, support for the Social Democrat Party has decreased among persons with a post-secondary education, at least three years. Any other changes lie within the margin of uncertainty.
Left Party (V)
In November 2021, 9.6 ± 0.7 percent of eligible voters stated that they prefer the Left Party. This is not a statistically significant change compared with May 2021 (9.1 ± 0.7 percent).
Support for the Left Party is greater among women than among men. In terms of age, the percentage of people who prefer the Left Party is greater among those younger than 50 years than among those aged 50 years and older. The Left Party has greater support among foreign born persons than among persons born in Sweden. In terms of educational attainment, support for the party is greater among those with a post-secondary education, three years or longer, than among those with a shorter education.
Compared with May 2021, support for the Left Party has increased among people aged 65 years and older. Any other changes lie within the margin of uncertainty.
Green Party (MP)
In November 2021, 4.0 ± 0.6 percent of eligible voters stated that they support the Green Party. This is not a statistically significant change compared with May 2021 (3.9 ± 0.6 percent).
There are no clear differences between the sexes with regard to support for the Green Party in November 2021. In terms of age, the percentage of persons who support the Green Party is greater among those younger than 50 years than among those aged 50 years and older. There is no statistically significant difference in support between persons born in Sweden and foreign born persons. In terms of educational attainment, the proportion of people who support the Green Party is larger among those with post-secondary education, at least three years, compared with those with a shorter education.
Compared with May 2021, support for the Green Party has increased among men and decreased among those with a shorter post-secondary education. Any other changes lie within the margin of uncertainty.
Sweden Democrats (SD)
In November 2021, 17.0 ± 1.0 percent of eligible voters stated that they prefer the Sweden Democrats the most. This is not a statistically significant change compared with May 2021 (17.9 ± 1.0 percent).
The Sweden Democrats have greater support among men than among women. Support is greatest among those aged 50-64 years, compared with other age groups. The Sweden Democrats have greater support among persons born in Sweden than among foreign born persons. In terms of educational attainment, support for the party is greater among people with compulsory and upper-secondary education than among those with post-secondary education.
Compared with May 2021, support for the Sweden Democrats has decreased among people aged 65 years and older and foreign born persons. Any other changes lie within the margin of uncertainty.
EU and euro preferences
The proportion of those who stated that they are mainly in favour of Sweden’s EU membership was 57.5 ± 1.5 percent in November 2021. The percentage of persons who are opposed to EU membership was 15.9 ± 1.1 percent, and the percentage of persons who did not have an opinion was 26.7 ± 1.5 percent. Compared with May 2021, there has been a statistically significant decrease in the proportion of those who state that they are opposed to EU membership.
If a referendum on the euro was held in November 2021, 20.6 ± 1.3 percent would vote yes to the euro, and 63.5 ± 1.6 percent would vote no, while 15.8 ± 1.2 percent stated that they do not know how they would vote. This is not a statistically significant change compared with May 2021.
The following questions were asked: If a referendum was held today to replace the Swedish krona as a currency, would you vote “yes” or “no” with regard to introducing the euro as Sweden’s currency? Are you mainly in favour of or opposed to Sweden’s EU membership, or do you not have any firm opinion?
See the Statistical Database in the link below for EU and euro preferences presented by region, foreign/Swedish background, civil status, children, income, type of housing, employment, socioeconomic group, sector and trade union affiliation.
Definitions and explanations
The Party Preference Survey in November 2021 was conducted with a national random sample consisting of 9 190 persons entitled to vote in a parliamentary election, without any upper age limit. Answers from these people are collected through telephone interviews and online questionnaires. As in previous surveys, all available telephone numbers, both to mobile phones and fixed phones, have been used to contact the selected persons.
Among the sample persons, 30.9 percent could not be reached, 2.8 percent were unable to participate, and 19.3 percent did not wish to be participate. The total non-response rate was 53.0 percent. The total number of respondents was 4 319, which corresponds to 47.0 percent. A more detailed presentation of non-response will be made available in connection with the publication on 8 December.
The data was collected during the period from 28 October to 25 November.
The results are presented in the form of point estimates ± margins of uncertainty. The interval that is formed by the percent estimate ± margin of uncertainty here is a 95 percent inaccuracy interval, which is an interval that, with 95 percent probability, includes the actual value of the population, if there are no systematic errors.
Next publishing will be
The estimate of May 2022 parliamentary election results will be published on 2 June 2022.
Political party preferences and EU and euro preferences in May 2022 will be published on 8 June 2022.
Feel free to use the facts from this statistical news but remember to state Source: Statistics Sweden.