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Labour Force Surveys (LFS) 2022:2 – Theme: Risks of unemployment and chances of employment during the corona pandemic

Temporary employees in the private sector most affected during the pandemic

Statistical news from Statistics Sweden 2022-12-06 8.00

The labour market situation deteriorated quickly in 2020 due to the corona pandemic. The risk of unemployment rose sharply in the second quarter of 2020, especially among temporary employees in the private sector.

Data from the Labour Force Surveys for the period from the first quarter of 2020 to the third quarter of 2022 has been used to highlight how the risk of becoming unemployed, from being employed in the previous quarter, and the chance of becoming employed, from being unemployed in the previous quarter, was affected by the corona pandemic among employed and unemployed persons aged 15-74.

Highest risk of unemployment in the second quarter of 2020

The risk of becoming unemployed rose sharply in the beginning of the pandemic for all employed persons, and reached its peak during the second quarter of 2020. There are differences in the development of the risk of unemployment between different groups. The risks increased more among temporary employees, part-time workers, employees in the private sector, especially in the hotel and restaurant industry, in professions that require a lower level of qualifications and among young people and foreign born. There were no differences between men and women in the risk of becoming unemployed.

The development of unemployment risks and chances of employment during the pandemic indicate that the risk of becoming unemployed was affected to a greater extent than the chance of becoming employed. Job chances decreased similarly regardless of the length of the unemployment period and previous work experience, as well as within different age groups and among both Swedish born and foreign born.

Temporary employees in the private sector were most affected

The unemployment increased the most at the beginning of the pandemic, and in the second quarter of 2020 the risk of becoming unemployed among temporary employees was around nine times higher than among permanent employees. Further, there were differences in the risk of unemployment between sectors among temporary employees during the studied period.

Before the year 2020, the risk of becoming unemployed among temporary employees in the private sector was on average 5.8 percent, and the corresponding figure in the public sector was 4.4 percent. At the beginning of the pandemic, the risk of unemployment in the private sector nearly doubled to 11.0 percent. In the public sector the increase was marginal, and the risk amounted to a maximum of 4.9 percent. Many of the most affected industries at the beginning of the corona pandemic are found in the private sector, where temporary employment is common, which can partly explain the increased risk among the more insecure form of employment.

Higher risk of unemployment among young people and foreign born

In the younger age groups and among foreign born, unemployment risks were higher and increased more during the pandemic. Many of the most affected industries during the beginning of the corona pandemic employ a significantly higher proportion of young people and foreign born compared to the average within the private sector. Young people and foreign born are also overrepresented among temporary employees, and among permanent employees the younger employees generally have the shortest employment periods and thus a weaker position on the labour market.

Before the pandemic, the risk of unemployment averaged 3.5 and 1.4 percent for those aged 15-24 and 25-34, respectively, compared to 0.8 percent for those aged 35-74. During the second quarter of 2020, the corresponding risks were 5.8 and 2.6 percent in the two younger age groups, compared to 1.3 percent for those aged 35-74. Among foreign born, the risk of unemployment before the pandemic averaged 2.1 percent compared to 1.0 percent among Swedish born. The difference between the groups increased during the pandemic, and by the second quarter of 2020 the risk had nearly doubled among foreign born persons, while that for Swedish born persons had increased by 50 percent.

Definitions and explanations

Risk of unemployment is defined as the share of persons who changed status from employed in the previous quarter to unemployed in the current quarter, out of the number of persons who were employed in the previous quarter.

Chance of employment is defined as the share of persons who changed status from unemployed in the previous quarter to employed in the current quarter, out of the number of persons who were unemployed in the previous quarter.

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Statistical agency

Statistics Sweden

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