Statistics Sweden publishes a projection of Sweden’s population every year. This projection is presented by age, sex and country of birth (native/foreign born) for each year in the period 2025—2070. Population projections are an important foundation for planning in areas such as government activities. Furthermore, these statistics are used as a basis for other statistics at Statistics Sweden that describe the future in Sweden.

The population is estimated to increase by nearly 90 000, to 10.7 million as of 2030. There will be years when the number of deaths exceed the number of births. But the population size is still estimated to increase as immigrants are estimated to outnumber emigrants.

Fewer children and more elderly people

The number of children per woman was 1.43 in 2024, the lowest level ever recorded. The total number of children born was fewer than 100 000, which is the lowest number since 2003. It is estimated that the number of newborns continue to be at this low level in the coming few years. The number in 2030 will be at a similar level as today, 98 000. Fewer children born now will result in a decrease of children in preschool and school ages in 2030 compared to today.

The different size of birth cohorts affects the size of the population in the future. The large birth cohorts, those born around the year 1990 will be in their 40s in 2030 and those born in the 1960s have just retired or are about to retire. The survivors of those born in the 1940s will be in their 80s in 2030.

The number of people aged 80 or over is estimated to be 812 000 in 2030, which is 160 000 more than today. This results in an increase in the number of deaths to 102 000 in 2030. In recent years, the number of deaths has varied between 91 000 and 95 000 per year.

The age to receive guarantee pension will increase from age 66 today to age 67 in 2030. This means that the ages that people are expected to work are changing. The number of people aged 25—66 is estimated to be 5 640 000 in 2030, which is 145 000 more than the number of people aged 25—65 in 2024. Meanwhile, the share of these age groups in the total population will slightly increase. In 2024, 51.9 percent of the total population were aged 25—65. It is estimated that 52.8 percent of the population will be in the age group 25—66 in 2030.

In the long term the population size is estimated to continue to increase, but at a slower pace than in recent years. The population is estimated to exceed 11 million in 2041 and reach 11.8 million in 2070.

Regulations concerning Ukrainian affects projection

The long-term assumptions in this projection are the same as those for last year. The short-term assumptions have been adjusted based on the recent situation changes. The biggest change is that people from Ukraine who were granted a resident permit based on the Temporary Protection Directive were included in this year’s projection. In the projection in 2024 they were not included as they were not registered in the population registry. Based on the current regulations, people from Ukraine have the right to be registered in the population registry until 4 March 2026. More detailed information can be seen in the report (in Swedish).

A more detailed report of this survey is published in (only in Swedish):

The future population of Sweden 2025–2070