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Regional population projection 2020-2030

Population expected to increase unevenly across the country

Statistical news from Statistics Sweden 2020-06-03 9.30

The population of Sweden is projected to be just over 11 million in 2030, which is 767 000, 7.4 percent, more than in 2019. Uppsala County is projected to have the largest population growth in percentage terms.

The largest growth in the number of people is expected in Stockholm County, the most populated county, which is projected to increase by 257 000. Uppsala County is projected to increase most in percentage terms, by 14.4 percent.

Other counties in which the population is projected to increase in percentage terms are Halland, Stockholm, Kronoberg, Skåne, Gotland, Jönköping, and Örebro. The population is projected to decline in two counties, Västernorrland and Norrbotten. The population is projected to grow in all other counties, although at a lower rate than at the national level.

Various reasons for growth at county level

International migration, a higher rate of immigration than emigration, contributes to the largest part of the projected population increase in all counties except Stockholm, Uppsala, and Gotland. In Stockholm County, the population growth is projected to mainly result from more births than deaths. In Uppsala County and Gotland County, domestic migration is projected to be the major contributor, that is, more people will move in than out from other counties.

Västernorrland County and Norrbotten County, the two counties in which the population is projected to decline, experienced a population increase in the 2010s, solely due to international migration. A positive international migration is projected to continue in both counties, albeit at a slower rate than before and this will not balance the negative domestic net migration and more deaths than births.

Population in 2019 and 2030, and change (percent) in counties
County Population 2019 Population 2030 Growth 2019–2030 Percent
Stockholm County 2 377 100 2 634 300 10.8
Uppsala County 383 700 439 200 14.4
Södermanland County 297 500 317 400 6.7
Östergötland County 465 500 498 500 7.1
Jönköping County 363 600 394 900 8.6
Kronoberg County 201 500 221 300 9.9
Kalmar County 245 400 256 800 4.6
Gotland County 59 700 64 800 8.6
Blekinge County 159 600 162 900 2.1
Skåne County 1 377 800 1 503 900 9.2
Halland County 333 800 373 700 11.9
Västra Götaland County 1 725 900 1 831 500 6.1
Värmland County 282 400 287 700 1.9
Örebro County 304 800 329 700 8.2
Västmanland County 275 800 294 300 6.7
Dalarna County 288 000 293 400 1.9
Gävleborg County 287 400 289 700 0.8
Västernorrland County 245 300 242 000 ‑1.4
Jämtland County 130 800 135 500 3.6
Västerbotten County 271 700 284 200 4.6
Norrbotten County 250 100 238 900 ‑4.5
Sweden 10 327 600 11 094 900 7.4

Population declining in rural municipalities

There are major differences in population growth in various municipalities. These are, in part, due to the current age structure and migration in each municipality. Among Sweden’s 290 municipalities, the population is projected to increase in 142 municipalities and decrease in 84 of them. In 64 municipalities, the population is projected to remain largely unchanged.

To describe the progress at municipal level, municipalities have been classified into nine municipal groups, according to the Swedish Association of Local Authorities and Regions classification. The population in the municipality groups large cities, commuting municipalities near large cities, and medium-sized towns is projected to increase by almost 11 percent by 2030. This means that 63 percent of Sweden’s population is projected to live in one of these municipality types by then, which is two percentage points more than in 2019. Rural municipalities is the only municipality group in which the population is projected to decline, and will be 5.2 percent less than in 2019.

Population in 2019 and 2030, and increase (percent) in municipality groups
Municipality group Population 2019 Population 2030 Growth 2019–2030 Percent
Large cities 1 897 500 2 101 200 10.7
Commuting municipalities near large cities 1 929 600 2 140 900 11.0
Medium-sized towns 2 454 600 2 718 300 10.7
Commuting municipalities near medium-sized towns 856 200 897 000 4.8
Commuting municipalities with a low commuting rate near medium-sized towns 632 100 644 000 2.0
Small towns 1 311 200 1 360 200 3.7
Commuting municipalities near small towns 602 200 612 000 1.6
Rural area municipalities 493 200 467 700 ‑5.2
Rural municipalities with a visitor industry 150 900 152 800 1.2
Sweden 10 327 600 11 094 900 7.4

Conditions for the calculations

Calculations on the projected number of births, deaths, and on migration numbers are based on the assumption that observed trends will continue. Municipalities’ own plans or goals, such as housing construction, are not taken into account in the calculations.

The national projection, which is the basis for the regional projections, was produced on 16-20 March 2020, at the beginning of the coronavirus (COVID-19) outbreak in Sweden. Subsequent mortality figures and the economic consequences were not, and are still not, completely apparent. At the time, there were signs of a pending economic decline that have subsequently become clearer. An economic decline may have a major effect on migration, childbearing, and domestic migration. In recent months, excess mortality has also been noted in Sweden, in particular in some counties and municipalities. In the present situation, it is too early to predict how the coronavirus pandemic will affect population growth for the remainder of the year. This projection does not take into account the population growth in the current year.

Population projections for all counties and municipalities are available at scb.se

The regional projections are based on historical data and are in accordance with the national projection. Statistics on the population are published in the Statistical Database: births, deaths, domestic immigration and emigration, immigrants and emigrants, by age and sex for each year in the period 2020-2070. Trends in counties and municipality groups up to 2030 are described in a Statistical Report.

Statistics Sweden’s regional population projections provide an important basis for planning in areas such as municipal and central government activities. Private operators also use the regional population projections in their planning. These statistics have been popular, and now, for the first time, population projections for all counties and municipalities in Sweden are being published and made available to everyone on Statistics Sweden’s website.

Publication

Statistical Database

More information is available in the Statistical Database

Feel free to use the facts from this statistical news but remember to state Source: Statistics Sweden.

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Statistics Sweden, Forecast Institute

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Rasmus Andersson

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