Statistics Sweden publishes a projection of Sweden’s population every year. The statistics are broken down by age, sex, and Swedish born/foreign born for every year in the period 2020–2070. Population projections are an important foundation for planning in areas such as government activities. Furthermore, these statistics are used as a basis for other statistics at Statistics Sweden that describe the future in Sweden.

A new decade

A new decade, the 2020s, has just begun. By the end of this decade, on 31 December 2029, the number of inhabitants is estimated to be 700 000 more than today, which means that Sweden’s population is expected to reach 11 million during 2029. Throughout the 2020s, the birth rate is estimated to be 120 000 births per year on average, which is just over 5 000 per year more than in the 2010s. The large cohorts born around 1990, who are now having children of their own, will contribute to a rising number of childbirths in the next ten years.

In 2029, there will be 1.3 million children of school age, 6–15 years. This is not much different from today, just 35 000 more.

At the same time, the small cohorts, born around 2000, will then be turning 30 years and will reach the ages usually associated with gainful employment. In 2029, the entire age group 25–64 years will comprise 5.5 million people, which is an increase of 200 000. The number of Swedish born persons in this group will decrease by 100 000. Foreign born persons will account for the entire increase in the age group 25–64 years, which will increase by 300 000 from 2019.

In the 2020s, 110 000 persons per year on average are estimated to immigrate to Sweden, while on average 63 000 persons per year are estimated to emigrate. Compared with the 2010s, immigration numbers are expected to be lower, mainly due to less refugee immigration. On the other hand, emigration is expected to be higher than before. One explanation is that the population will consist of more foreign born persons and Swedish born persons with foreign born parents. These groups emigrate to a larger extent than others.

An ageing population

The large cohorts born in the mid-1960s will be around 65 years in 2029. With a raised retirement age, they will still be of working age, but probably nearing the end of their working career.

Persons born at the end of the 1940s will be 80 years old in 2029. That year, there will be 800 000 inhabitants who are 80 years or older and 3 300 who are 100 years or older. Today, 540 000 inhabitants are older than 80 years and 2 200 have turned 100 years old. Both these age groups are expected to increase by 50 percent.

During the 2020s, on average 95 000 persons are expected to die in Sweden every year. This means on average 4 000 per year more than in the 2010s, and is explained by an increasing number of inhabitants reaching higher ages. In 2019, the average age at which people died was 84.7 years for women and 81.3 years for men. In ten years, this figure is estimated to increase to 85.7 years for women and 82.8 for men.

The coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic and its impact on the population projection

The ongoing coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic affects the population projection. It is difficult to anticipate, in particular, the future economic consequences. The projection is always subject to some uncertainty. However, as there are currently several changes taking place in society, it is more uncertain than normal.

This projection is based on calculations carried out on 16–20 March 2020, at the beginning of the coronavirus outbreak in Sweden, and it was not yet possible to assess the economic impact, in particular. At the time, there were signs of a pending economic decline, and in the period between the calculations and publication, these signs have become more pronounced. The extent of the economic decline remains uncertain, and thereby also its impact on the population development.

The projection of the future population is based on assumptions on changes in childbearing rates, mortality rates and immigration and emigration. These parameters are affected in various ways and to varying degrees by the coronavirus outbreak, but the economic consequences have a greater impact on the assumptions than the virus itself.

A more detailed report is published in Swedish with a summary in English:

The future population of Sweden 2020–2070.

On 3 June, Statistics Sweden will publish population projections at municipality and county level for the first time.