The future population of Sweden 2021–2070
Just over 2 million more inhabitants in Sweden in 50 years
Statistical news from Statistics Sweden 2021-04-28 9.30
In 50 years, Sweden’s population is projected to be 12.6 million. That is 2.2 million more than in 2020 and corresponds to a 22 percent increase. This means a somewhat slower increase than in the past 50 years; since 1970, the population has increased by 28 percent.
Statistics Sweden publishes a projection of Sweden’s population every year. The presentation is broken down by age, sex and Swedish born/foreign born persons for each year in the period 2021–2070. Population projections are an important foundation for planning in areas such as government activities. Furthermore, these statistics are used as a basis for other statistics at Statistics Sweden that describe the future in Sweden.
We are getting older - both women’s age at childbirth and at death
The population increase is not steady at all ages and the highest ages in the population are increasing the most. In 2070, just over 25 percent of the population is expected to be younger than 25 years old, just over 25 percent is expected to be 65 years and older, and just under 50 percent is expected to be between 25 and 64 years old. Compared with today, this is an increased proportion in the higher ages, a decreased proportion in the ages 25-64 years and a slight decreased proportion in the younger ages.
The population is expected to increase both because there will be more births than deaths and because more people will immigrate than emigrate. In the long term, it is estimated that there will be around 100 000 immigrants every year. This is more than in the past 50 years, but close to the average for the 2000s. The number of emigrants is expected to increase and be higher than in previous years. In 2070, it is estimated that the number of immigrants will exceed the number of emigrants by 32 000.
Both women born in Sweden and foreign born women are expected to be older when they have children and will have on average fewer children than today. Furthermore, the differences in childbearing between foreign born and Swedish born women are expected to decrease.
The fact that the number and proportion of older people in the population is increasing is due to an expected increase in average life expectancy by just under 6 years for women and by 7 years for men by 2070. That is roughly one year less in increase in the next 50 years than in the past 50 years.
The most common age of death in 2070 is expected to be 93 years for women and 92 years for men. Last year, the most common age of death was 89 years for women and 87 years for men.
Definitions and explanations
In the short term, this projection can be regarded as a population forecast. In the long term, the projection should be regarded as precisely a projection of the population in the case that current behaviour and trends continue in the future. Furthermore, an assumption is made that regulations that apply today will continue to apply throughout the projection period. Already in the short term, changes in society may mean that projection conditions will change.
Publication
A more detailed report is published in Swedish with a summary in English:
Next publishing will be
Population projections for counties and municipalities will be published on 3 June.
Statistical Database
More information is available in the Statistical Database
Feel free to use the facts from this statistical news but remember to state Source: Statistics Sweden.