• The interest rates for household’s mortgages rose and contributed with 2.3 percentage points to the annual inflation rate according to CPI.
• Seasonal price decreases on clothes and air travel contributed to lower prices in January.
• Fuel prices declined by 11 percent compared to December, which mainly was affected by lower diesel prices.
• The annual inflation rate according to CPIF excluding energy decreased from 5.3 percent in December to 4.4 percent in January.
• The basket effect on the monthly change in the CPI was -0.25 percent in January 2024.

Declining prices were offset by rising housing costs

The CPI decreased by 0.1 percent from December to January. In the corresponding period a year ago, prices decreased by 1.1 percent.

The decline in January was affected by lower prices on clothes and air travel, which is normal for the season. Fuel prices declined as well, mainly because of lower prices on diesel. Moreover, decreased prices were noted for numerous goods and services such as accommodation services.

The decreasing prices were offset by rising housing costs. Main contributions came from electricity, monthly fees for tenant-owned apartments and mortgage costs for owner-occupied housing. Additionally, fees for water and wastewater as well as rented apartments rose in January.

The basket used to calculate the CPI is updated in January each year. In January 2024, the contribution of the basket effect on the monthly change in the CPI was -0.25 percent.

The table below shows changes on a monthly basis and contributions to the CPI based on the goods and services that had the greatest impact on the CPI in January 2024. The results are presented by COICOP category. COICOP refers to the United Nations classification of household consumption expenditure.

Inflation rate higher in January

The inflation rate according to the CPI, that is, the change in the CPI from the same month last year, was 5.4 percent in January 2024. This is an increase from December, when the inflation rate was 4.4 percent.

The contributions to the inflation rate in January came from higher housing costs, which was mainly affected by rising fees for rented and tenant-owned apartments as well as increased mortgage costs. Furthermore, the price increase on a yearly basis was widespread over several goods and services such as food, furnishings and household goods as well as recreation and culture.

The increased prices were offset by electricity and fuel prices which declined since the corresponding month last year.

The inflation rate according to CPIF, which unlike CPI is not affected by changes in mortgage interest rates, was 3.3 percent in January. The corresponding rate for December was 2.3 percent.

The inflation rate calculated excluding energy products (CPIF-XE) was 4.4 percent in January, which is a decrease compared to December when it was 5.3 percent.

Different measures of inflation

Statistics Sweden calculates different inflation measures for different purposes. The CPIF is the Riksbank’s target variable, while CPI is the measure used for purposes of compensation. The CPIF includes the same goods and services as CPI. The difference between the CPI and the CPIF is that the latter measure holds interest rates for household’s mortgages constant. As a consequence, thereof, the effect of changed interest rates for household’s mortgages is only captured by the CPI and not the CPIF.

Additional to the CPI and the CPIF, the HICP is also calculated. The HICP is a harmonized measure of inflation used within the EU cooperation. Another index that is calculated each month is CPIF-XE (the CPIF excluding energy products) which is often used as a measure of underlying inflation.