• The interest rates for household’s mortgages rose and contributed with 2.8 percentage points to the annual inflation rate according to CPI.
• The prices for food and non-alcoholic beverages rose by 19.7 percent in the past year and 1.2 percent since February.
• Electricity prices decreased for the third month in a row, in March, the electricity prices fell with 2.2 percent.
• Fuel prices have decreased by 8.0 percent in the last 12 months.
• The annual inflation rate according to CPIF excluding energy decreased from 9.3 percent in February to 8.9 percent in March.

“The inflation rate according to the CPI was higher than CPIF because of the increased mortgages interest rates. This effect is eliminated from CPIF. Otherwise, the two measures are similar”, says Caroline Neander, statistician at Statistics Sweden.

Increasing housing costs in March

The CPI increased by 0.6 percent from February to March. In the corresponding period a year ago, prices went up by 1.8 percent.

In March, there was a widespread price increase within food and non-alcoholic beverages, where several food products rose in price. There was also a broad price increase on clothes. Prices also rose for household textiles.

For housing, the costs rose mainly because of higher interest expenses both for owner occupied housing and tenant owned apartments. There were also rent increases for rental apartments in March. The increased housing costs were offset by falling electricity prices, which moderated rising housing costs.

Due to the book sale, the prices of books fell, which is seasonally normal. Further, a seasonally normal price decrease for package holidays also was noted.

The table below shows changes on a monthly basis and contributions to the CPI based on the goods and services that had the greatest impact on the CPI in March 2023. The results are presented by COICOP category. COICOP refers to the United Nations classification of household consumption expenditure.

Decreasing inflation rate in March

The inflation rate according to CPI, that is, the change in CPI from the same month of the previous year, was 10.6 percent in March 2023. This is a decrease from February when the inflation rate was 12.0 percent.

The inflation rate was affected by a broad price increase the last year within food and non-alcoholic beverages. The main contribution came from bread- and cereals, meat, milk, cheese- and eggs, sugar, jam, honey, chocolate- and confectionery and vegetables.

The housing costs have increased during the last year where the largest contributions came from increased interest expenses. Rising monthly fees for tenant-owned apartments, rent increases for rental apartments and higher electricity prices has also contributed to the inflation rate.

For the last 12 months, recreation and culture, furnishings- and household goods, restaurant visits and accommodation have increased in price. In addition, there have been price increases for miscellaneous goods and services, where goods and services in personal care had the largest contribution.

The inflation rate according to the CPIF, which unlike CPI is not affected by changes in mortgage interest rates, was 8.0 percent in March. This is a decrease compared to February when it was 9.4 percent.

The inflation rate calculated excluding energy products (CPIF-XE) was 8.9 percent in March, which is a decrease compared to February when it was 9.3 percent.

CPI and CPIF, two different measures of inflation

As from the publication of CPI regarding February 2023, the statistical news will shift the main focus from CPIF to CPI. This affects the title and the introduction, but also the tables and diagrams that are presented. CPIF will continue to be presented in the statistical news. The reason behind the change in the statistical news is an increased interest in the general price trend in Sweden as shown by the CPI.

CPI and CPIF are two different measures of inflation that Statistics Sweden calculates. The most common measure of inflation in Sweden is the change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI), but it is the CPIF that is the measure that the Riksbank uses in its inflation target. The CPIF includes the same goods and services as the CPI. The difference between CPI and CPIF is that in CPIF, interest rates for households’ mortgages are kept constant. This means that the effect of changes in interest rates for households’ mortgages is only captured in the CPI and not in the CPIF.

Different measures of inflation

Statistics Sweden calculates different inflation measures for different purposes. The CPIF is the Riksbank’s target variable, while the CPI is the measure used for purposes of compensation.