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What is the CPI flash estimate?

The CPI flash estimate is a preliminary indicator for the aggregated inflation that will be published five working days before the regular publication of the Consumer Price Index (CPI).

What will be published in the CPI flash estimate?

Preliminary annual and monthly changes for CPI, CPIF (CPI with fixed interest rate), and CPIF-XE (CPIF excluding energy) will be published in a separate table in the statistical database. Monthly statistical news will also be published in Swedish and English.

Detailed indices (such as price developments for food, energy, etc.) will not be included in the CPI flash estimate but will continue to be published only with the regular CPI.

How reliable will the CPI flash estimate be?

The CPI flash estimate will be based on preliminary data used by Statistics Sweden for review purposes. In the review process, minor errors in microdata are often detected and corrected before the final CPI is published. At the aggregated level, these corrections will have a marginal effect on the statistics. On average (measured as absolute mean error), the CPI flash estimate will deviate by one-hundredth of a percentage point from the regular published inflation rate according to the CPI. Individual months may have deviations from regular CPI larger or smaller than one-hundredth of a percentage point.

When will the CPI flash estimate start being published?

The CPI flash estimate will begin publication for the CPI of August or September. The exact start date has not yet been determined.

How long before the regular CPI will the CPI flash estimate be published?

The CPI flash estimate will be published five working days before the regular publication.

What do other countries do?

Publication of quick estimates for inflation already occurs, for example, in the Euro area. If a country uses the Euro as its currency, they must publish a quick estimate at the beginning of each month. Statistics Sweden’s flash estimate will be approximately one week after the start of the month.

Links

Investigation of the CPI flash estimate discussed in the User Council for Economic Statistics and the Consumer Price Index Board (in Swedish):

PM till nämnden för KPI (PDF)