Consumer Price Index (CPI), January 2021
Inflation rate was 1.7 percent in January 2021
Statistical news from Statistics Sweden 2021-02-18 9.30
The inflation rate according to the CPIF (Consumer Price Index with fixed interest rate) was 1.7 percent in January 2021, up from 0.5 percent in December. The change on a monthly basis between December and January was -0.3 percent.
In brief
| Index Numbers |
Monthly changes, percent |
Annual changes, percent |
|
|---|---|---|---|
| CPI (1980=100) | 338.09 | ‑0.4 | 1.6 |
| CPIF (1987=100) | 221.33 | ‑0.3 | 1.7 |
| CPIF-XE (1987=100) | 208.70 | ‑0.7 | 1.8 |
- Prices increased on electricity, partly due to colder weather.
- Weaker January sales on items such as clothes had an upward effect on inflation.
- 0.8 percent of the basket was imputed due to absence of consumption.
- The basket effect affected the monthly rate in January by -0.35 percent and the yearly rate by 0.16 percent.
Basket effect and seasonal price decreases affected the CPIF in January
The CPIF decreased by 0.3 percent from December to January. In the corresponding period a year ago, the CPIF decreased by 1.5 percent.
The main contribution to the CPIF monthly rate came from falling prices on clothes, computers, and package holidays, the prices of which usually decrease in January. Prices also fell for restaurants. This decline was partly offset by price increases on electricity, where factors such as colder temperatures led to rising prices in all electricity areas. Prices also rose on vegetables and fuel.
The basket used to calculate the CPIF is updated in January each year. Obsolete goods and services are removed, and new items are added. In addition, the weights for all goods and services in the basket are updated. The total effect of the updated composition of the basket and new weights is called the “basket effect”. In January 2021, the contribution of the basket effect to the monthly change in the CPIF was -0.35 percent and 0.16 percent to the yearly rate. Shifts in consumer spending patterns during the coronavirus pandemic have led to certain adjustments of the weights. Services such as air travel and tickets to cultural events have been assigned lower weights in the CPIF basket, while products such as home electronics and household equipment have been assigned higher weights.
Any methodological changes in the CPIF are also introduced in January. For further information on changes introduced ahead of 2021, follow the link under “Changes in 2021”.
The table below shows changes on a monthly basis and contributions to the CPIF based on the goods and services that had the greatest impact on the CPIF in January 2021. The results are presented by COICOP category; COICOP refers to the United Nations classification of household consumption expenditure.
| Category (Coicop) | Monthly changes, percent |
Contribution to CPIF Monthly change, percentage points |
|---|---|---|
| Food and non-alcoholic beverages (01) | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| Vegetables (01.1.7) | 3.7 | 0.1 |
| Clothes (03.1) | ‑9.9 | ‑0.4 |
| Electricity (04.5.1) | 6.4 | 0.2 |
| Fuel (07.2.2) | 3.1 | 0.1 |
| International Flights (07.3) | ‑8.3 | ‑0.1 |
| Audiovisual och photographic equipment and computer equipment (09.1) | ‑2.2 | ‑0.1 |
| Computers (09.1) | ‑1.9 | ‑0.1 |
| Package holidays (09.6) | ‑23.1 | ‑0.1 |
| Restaurants (11.1) | ‑0.1 | ‑0.1 |
Seasonal patterns and temporary price changes
Price changes on goods and services may be seasonal or temporary. The figure above shows the monthly changes this year and in the two most recent years, for the goods and services with the largest impact on the CPIF monthly change.
For vegetables, prices rose as in previous years. However, the increase was greater in this period. A similar pattern was also visible for fuel, which increased more in January 2021 than in the last two years.
Prices declines on clothes is seasonally normal in January. However, this year, prices fell less than usual. This was partly due to a smaller proportion of clothes on sale. Prices on international air travel also fell less than in previous years. In addition, prices usually fall on package holidays in January, but the decrease was more extensive this year than in the last two years. A similar pattern was visible for computers, for which prices fell more in this period than in the same period in 2019 and in 2020.
Since international air travel and package holidays have been assigned lower weights, the contribution to the CPIF monthly change was not as extensive in January 2021 as if similar price changes had taken place in the previous year. However, the relationship is the opposite for computers, which have a greater weight this year and therefore affected the CPIF more compared to a similar price change last year.
Higher prices on housing and food had a positive effect on the CPIF
The inflation rate according to the CPIF, that is, the change in the CPIF over the past 12-month period, was 1.7 percent in January 2021. The inflation rate rose from 0.5 percent in December.
The inflation rate was affected mainly by rising housing costs and higher prices on food and non-alcoholic beverages. Prices also rose on electricity compared with January last year. In addition, prices increased on furnishings and household equipment, transport services, and miscellaneous goods and services.
These price increases were offset mainly by lower prices on computers and TV sets. Prices also fell on fuel, the prices for which remained lower than in the same period a year ago.
The inflation rate according to the CPIF excluding energy was 1.8 percent in January, up from 1.2 percent in December.
| Yearly change, percent |
Contribution yearly change CPIF percentage points |
|
|---|---|---|
| Food and non-alcoholic beverages (01) | 1.9 | 0.3 |
| Clothes and shoes (03) | 3.9 | 0.2 |
| Electricity (04.5.1) | 5.8 | 0.2 |
| Rented and housing co-operative dwellings: rent incl. heating (04.S) | 1.3 | 0.1 |
| Housing (04.x) | 3.6 | 0.3 |
| Furnishings, household equipment and routine maintenance of the house (05) | 2.4 | 0.2 |
| Fuel (07.2.2) | ‑9.7 | ‑0.2 |
| Transport services (07.3) | 7.3 | 0.2 |
| Audiovisual och photographic equipment and computer equipment (09.1) | ‑9.6 | ‑0.2 |
| Misc. Goods and services (12) | 2.6 | 0.2 |
Other measures of inflation
Statistics Sweden calculates different inflation measures for different purposes. The CPIF is the Riksbank’s target variable, while the CPI is the measure used for purposes of compensation.
Effects of the coronavirus pandemic on calculations
As a result of the coronavirus pandemic, some services in the CPIF basket were unavailable to consumers to purchase in January. As in previous months, prices for these services have been imputed. The share of imputed prices decreased from 2.2 percent of the CPIF basket in December to 0.83 percent in January. This decrease is partly due to changes in 2021, where some of the previously imputed product groups have updated samples or have been assigned different weights and therefore no longer need to be imputed. For further information, see the document “Special imputations during the coronavirus pandemic”.
Special imputations during the coronavirus pandemic (pdf)
Changes in 2021
Some changes in the production of the Consumer Price Index will be introduced from 2021. For further information, please see:
Definitions and explanations
The CPIF shows the same price trend as the CPI, but without the direct effects of a changed monetary policy. The CPIF is the Riksbank’s target variable for the inflation target.
The CPIF excluding energy (CPIF-XE) and the CPIF with constant tax (CPIF-CT) are two other measures of inflation produced by Statistics Sweden on behalf of the Riksbank. In the CPIF-XE, energy products are excluded from the CPIF, while in the CPIF-CT the taxes and subsidies associated with the products in the CPIF are kept constant.
The HICP (Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices) is produced by all EU Member States. This measure has a somewhat smaller coverage than the CPI and the CPIF, mainly because parts of households’ housing costs are omitted.
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