Party Preference Survey (PSU) , Political party preferences:
Political party preferences November 2016
Statistical news from Statistics Sweden 2016-12-06 9.30
The Political Party Preference Survey shows the support of the various parties in different demographic groups. Party preference does not refer to any specific level of politics and no consideration is taken to whether a person will vote or not. The survey also presents the EU and euro preferences of the electorate.
On 1 December, Statistics Sweden published estimates of election results if there were to be an election in November 2016. Here we present estimates of party preferences in the electorate from the same survey.
The difference between the measurements is:
- The "Election today" estimate refers to the results of an election in November. The results are weighted by how people voted in the previous Riksdag election as well as the question of whether a person would vote or not.
- Party preference does not refer to any specific level of politics and no consideration is taken to whether a person would vote or not. The results are weighted by region, sex, age, level of education and Swedish/foreign born.
Below, election results are compared in a hypothetical Riksdag election in November 2016 with party preferences at the same point in time.
| Party | "Election today", November 2016 | Margin of error | Party preference, November 2016 | Margin of error |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
C
|
7.1% | ±0.4 | 7.6% | ±0.8 |
|
L
|
5.0% | ±0.5 | 4.8% | ±0.6 |
|
M
|
22.8% | ±0.8 | 25.4% | ±1.3 |
|
KD
|
3.1% | ±0.3 | 3.1% | ±0.5 |
|
S
|
29.2% | ±0.8 | 31.3% | ±1.4 |
|
V
|
7.7% | ±0.5 | 7.0% | ±0.8 |
|
MP
|
4.5% | ±0.4 | 5.2% | ±0.7 |
|
SD
|
17.5% | ±0.7 | 13.1% | ±1.0 |
|
Other
|
3.2% | ±0.4 | 2.4% | ±0.5 |
In the table appendix of the publication, party preference is also presented for a number of different groups in the population of eligible voters. The stronger and weaker groups of each party are commented on with regard to sex, age, country of birth and level of education.
Party preferences in November 2016
Centre Party
In November 2016, 7.6 ± 0.8 percent of eligible voters report that they prefer the Centre Party the most. This is a statistically significant increase compared with May 2016.
Support for the Centre Party is somewhat greater among women than among men. However, it is not possible to see any clear differences among age groups concerning supporters of the Centre Party in November 2016. As previously, based on country of birth there is a clear difference in support for the Centre Party. The party has a markedly higher proportion of supporters among Swedish born persons than among foreign born persons. It is not possible to see any differences in support for the Centre Party based on level of education.
Liberal Party
In November 2016, 4.8 ± 0.6 percent of eligible voters report that they prefer the Liberal Party the most. Compared with May 2016, this is a statistically significant decrease.
It is not possible to see any clear difference among the sexes or age groups concerning supporters of the Liberal Party in November 2016. However, support for the Liberal Party is greater among Swedish born persons than among foreign born persons. Concerning level of education, the proportion of supporters of the party in November 2016 is greater among those with a higher level of education, and greatest among those with a post-secondary education.
Moderate Party
In November 2016, 25.4 ± 1.3 percent of eligible voters report that they prefer the Moderate Party the most. This is a statistically significant decrease compared with May 2016.
Previously, the Moderate Party was stronger among men, but from May 2015 and onwards, it is not possible to see any difference among the sexes concerning preference for the Moderate Party. It is not possible to see any clear differences among age groups concerning preference for the Moderate Party in November 2016, nor can we see any clear differences concerning support among Swedish born persons and foreign born persons. Support for the Moderate Party is greater among those with upper secondary or post secondary education than among those with compulsory education as their highest level of education.
Christian Democrats
In November 2016, 3.1 ± 0.5 percent of eligible voters report that they prefer the Christian Democrats the most. This is not a statistically significant change compared with May 2016.
It is not possible to see any difference among the sexes or age groups concerning supporters of the Liberal Party in November 2016. There are no noticeable differences concerning support among Swedish born and foreign born persons, nor based on education level.
Social Democrats
In November 2016, 31.3 ± 1.4 percent of the electorate reported that they prefer the Social Democrats the most. Compared with May 2016, this is not a statistically significant change.
In November 2016, it is not possible to see any clear differences in support for the Social Democrats concerning sex. However, there are differences among different age groups. Support for the social Democrats is greater among persons over age 50 and is highest among those over age 65. The party has markedly stronger support among foreign born persons than among Swedish born persons. Concerning level of education, the Social Democrats have greater support among those with compulsory and upper secondary level education than among those with post secondary education.
Left Party
In November 2016, 7.0 ± 0.8 percent of eligible voters report that they prefer the Left Party the most. Compared with May 2016, this is not a statistically significant change.
In November 2016, it is not possible to see any clear differences between women and men in support for the Left Party. Concerning age, the proportion that prefers the Left Party is lower among those aged 65 and older compared with other ages. It is not possible to note any statistically significant differences in preferences between Swedish born persons and foreign born persons. Concerning level of education, support for the party is greater among those with post secondary education compared with those with a lower level of education.
Green Party
In November 2016, 5.2 ± 0.7 percent of eligible voters report that they prefer the Green Party the most. This is not a statistically significant change compared with May 2016.
In November 2016, the Green Party has stronger support among women than among men, even though the difference is less than before due to a drop in support among women since May 2016. Concerning age, the share that prefers the Green Party is greater among those aged 18 to 64 compared with those aged 65 and older. Previously there has been a pattern in which support for the Green Party is greatest in the youngest age groups. However, due to a decline in support for the Green Party primarily in the youngest age groups, this pattern no longer emerges. It is not possible to see any clear differences in support between Swedish born persons and foreign born persons. Regarding education, support for the party is greater among those with post secondary education compared with those with a lower level of education.
Sweden Democrats
In November 2016, 13.1 ± 1.0 percent of eligible voters report that they prefer the Sweden Democrats the most. Compared with May 2016, this is not a statistically significant change.
In November 2016, as previously, support for the Sweden Democrats is stronger among men than among women. It is not possible to see any clear differences in support among different age groups. Support for the Sweden Democrats is greater among Swedish born persons than among foreign born persons. Concerning level of education, support is greater among those with compulsory and upper secondary education than among those with post secondary education.
EU and euro preferences
If there were to be a referendum on the euro in November 2016, 72.0 ± 1.3 percent would vote no to the euro and 15.8 ± 1.0 percent would vote yes. 12.2 ± 0.9 percent say they do not know how they would vote. Compared with May 2016, the proportion that would vote no has decreased and the proportion that say they do not know how they would vote has increased. Both of these changes are statistically significant.
The proportion of those who say they are mainly for Sweden’s EU membership was 50.3 ± 1.4 percent in November 2016. The proportion against EU membership was 20.8 ± 1.1 percent, and the proportion that did not have an opinion was 28.9 ± 1.3 percent.
Compared with May 2016, the proportion that say they are against EU membership has decreased, while the proportion that did not have an opinion has increased. These changes are statistically significant.
For more information about EU and euro preferences, please refer to Sweden’s Statistical Databases (see link below).
Definitions and explanations
The Party Preference Survey in November 2016 was conducted with a national random probability sample consisting of 8 952 persons entitled to vote in the Riksdag election, without an upper age limit. From the survey in May 2015 onwards, answers are collected from these selected persons through telephone interviews and web questionnaires. The introduction of this type of mixed collection was conducted under controlled forms, and analyses of patterns of response have been conducted prior to publication. The sample method is exactly the same as previously, with a random sample from the population register. The difference is that in the beginning of the collection period, parts of the sample were given the option to reply via a web questionnaire. If they have not replied via the web questionnaire, they have been contacted via telephone later on. As in the previous surveys, all available telephone numbers, both to mobile phones and home phones, have been used to contact the selected persons.
Of the sample persons, 22.6 percent could not be reached (including persons with unlisted telephone numbers and those without telephones), 2.9 percent were too ill to be interviewed and 18.4 percent did not want to be interviewed. The total non-response rate was 43.9 percent. The total number of respondents was 5 021. In addition, some persons did not want to answer certain questions. The data was collected during the period from 28 October to 27 November. A more detailed presentation of non-response will be made available in connection with the publication on 6 December.
The results are presented in intervals or point estimations ± margins of error. The interval that is created by the percent estimation ± margin of error here is a 95 percent confidence interval, which is an interval with a 95 percent probability including the actual value of the population, if no systematic errors occur.
Next publishing will be
Estimates of election results for the Riksdag election in May 2017 will be published on 1 June 2017 at 09.30.
Political party preferences and EU/euro preferences in May 2017 will be published on 6 June 2017 at 09.30.
Statistical Database
More information is available in the Statistical Database
Feel free to use the facts from this statistical news but remember to state Source: Statistics Sweden.