Political Party Preference Survey in May 2018 – Political party preferences:
Political party preferences in May 2018
Statistical news from Statistics Sweden 2018-06-11 9.30
The Political Party Preference Survey shows the support for the different political parties in various demographic groups. Political party preference does not refer to a specific political level and no account is taken of whether or not a person would vote. The survey also presents the EU and euro preferences of the electorate.
On 5 June, Statistics Sweden published estimates of election results, if an election had been held in May 2018. Here, Statistics Sweden presents estimates of party preferences in the electorate, based on the same survey. Political party preference refers to the political party that persons prefer the most, which is not necessarily the same as the political party they would vote for in a parliamentary election.
The difference between the measurements is:
- Political party preference does not refer to any specific level of politics, such as parliamentary elections, and no account is taken of whether or not a person would vote. The results are weighted by region, sex, age, level of education and Swedish/foreign born.
- The Election today estimate refers to the results of an election held in May. The results are weighted by how people voted in the previous parliamentary election, as well as the question of whether a person would vote or not.
Since the Election today estimate and the Political Party Preference estimate are weighted differently, caution should be applied when making comparisons.
The distribution of political party preferences among women and men in the electorate are shown below.
| Party | Women | Men | Total | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Percent | Margin of error | Percent | Margin of error | Percent | Margin of error | ||
|
C
|
11.1 | ±1.4 | 7.5 | ±1.1 | 9.3 | ±0.9 | |
|
L
|
5.4 | ±1.0 | 4.4 | ±0.9 | 4.9 | ±0.7 | |
|
M
|
21.1 | ±1.9 | 26.5 | ±1.9 | 23.8 | ±1.3 | |
|
KD
|
3.0 | ±0.8 | 2.5 | ±0.6 | 2.7 | ±0.5 | |
|
S
|
32.2 | ±2.1 | 27.0 | ±1.9 | 29.6 | ±1.4 | |
|
V
|
8.8 | ±1.3 | 6.6 | ±1.1 | 7.7 | ±0.9 | |
|
MP
|
6.1 | ±1.1 | 3.3 | ±0.8 | 4.7 | ±0.7 | |
|
SD
|
9.7 | ±1.4 | 19.7 | ±1.7 | 14.7 | ±1.1 | |
|
Other
|
2.8 | ±0.8 | 2.4 | ±0.7 | 2.6 | ±0.5 | |
In the table appendix of the The Party Preference Survey in May 2018, political party preference is presented concerning a number of various groups in the population of eligible voters. The sex, age, country of birth and educational level of the supporters of each political party are described here.
Political party preferences in May 2018
Centre Party
In May 2018, 9.3 ± 0.9 percent of eligible voters report that they prefer, or support, the Centre Party the most. This is not a statistically significant change compared to November 2017.
Support for the Centre Party is greater among women than among men. However, it is not possible to see any clear differences between age groups among supporters. The Centre Party has a higher proportion of supporters among Swedish born persons than among foreign born persons. Support for the Centre Party is greater among persons with longer post-secondary education, at least three years, than among those with compulsory and upper secondary education.
Liberal Party
In May 2018, 4.9 ± 0.7 percent of eligible voters report that they support the Liberal Party. This is not a statistically significant change compared to November 2017.
There are no differences between the sexes in support for the Liberal Party in May 2018. In addition, there are no apparent differences among different age groups among supporters. There is also no significant difference between Swedish born and foreign born persons concerning support. With regard to the level of education, the proportion of supporters is largest among those with post-secondary education.
Moderate Party
In May 2018, 23.8 ± 1.3 percent of eligible voters report that they prefer, or support, the Moderate Party the most. This is not a statistically significant change compared to November 2017.
Support for the Moderate Party is greater among men than among women. With regard to age, support is lower among those older than 65 years compared to those aged 18 to 64 years. There is no significant difference in support between Swedish born and foreign born persons. With regard to the level of education, support is lowest among those with compulsory education, compared with other educational levels.
Christian Democrats
In May 2018, 2.7 ± 0.5 percent of eligible voters report that they prefer the Christian Democrats. This is not a statistically significant change compared to November 2017.
There is no apparent difference between the sexes with regard to support for the Christian Democrats in May 2018. With regard to age, the proportion of supporters is lowest among young people aged 18 to 29, compared with those aged 30 years and older. There are no noticeable differences in support by country of birth (Swedish born and foreign born), or by level of education.
Social Democrats
In May 2018, 29.6 ± 1.4 percent of the electorate reported that they prefer, or support, the Social Democrats the most. Compared to November 2017, this is a statistically significant decrease.
Support for the Social Democrats is greater among women than among men. Older people to a greater extent support the Social Democrats, compared with younger people. There is about twice as much support among those aged 65 years and older, compared with those aged 18 to 29 years. The Social Democrats have greater support among foreign born persons and among Swedish born persons. With regard to the level of education, the Social Democrats have greater support among those with compulsory and upper secondary level education than among those with post secondary education.
Left Party
In May 2018, 7.7 ± 0.9 percent of eligible voters state that they support the Left Party. This is not a statistically significant change compared to November 2017.
Support for the Left Party is greater among women than among men. With regard to age, the proportion of those who support the Left Party is higher among younger people and lower among older people. It is not possible to see any clear differences between Swedish born and foreign born persons with regard to support. With regard to level of education, support for the Left Party is greater among those with longer post-secondary education, at least three years, compared with those with compulsory or upper secondary education.
Green Party
In May 2018, 4.7 ± 0.7 percent of eligible voters state that they support the Green Party. This is not a statistically significant change compared to November 2017.
The Green Party has greater support among women than among men. With regard to age, the proportion of those who support the Green Party is lower among those aged 50 and older compared with those who are younger. Support is lowest among those aged 65 and older. There is no significant difference in support between Swedish born and foreign born persons. With regard to the level of education, support for the Green Party is greatest among those with at least three years of post-secondary education.
Sweden Democrats
In May 2018, 14.7 ± 1.1 percent of eligible voters state that they prefer, or support, the Sweden Democrats the most. Compared to November 2017, this is a statistically significant increase.
The Sweden Democrats have greater support, about twice as much, among men than among women. It is not possible to distinguish any clear pattern with regard to age. The Sweden Democrats have greater support among Swedish born persons than among foreign born persons. With regard to the level of education, support for the Sweden Democrats is greater, more than twice as much, among those with compulsory and upper secondary education than among those with post-secondary education.
EU and euro preferences
If a referendum on the euro had been held in May 2018, about 20.1 ± 1.2 percent would vote “yes” to the euro while about 66.0 ± 1.4 percent would vote “no”. 14.0 ± 1.0 percent say they do not know how they would vote. Compared with November 2017, the proportion of those who say they would vote “yes” has increased, while the proportion of those who would vote “no” has decreased. Both changes are statistically significant.
The proportion of those who say they are mainly in favour of Sweden’s EU membership was 52.4 ± 1.4 percent in May 2018. The proportion of those who are opposed to EU membership was 18.8 ± 1.1 percent, and the proportion of those who did not have an opinion was 28.7 ± 1.3 percent.
Compared with November 2017, the proportion of those who state that they are in favour of EU membership has decreased, while the proportion of those who say they do not have an opinion has increased. These changes are statistically significant.
Footnote
The following questions were asked:
1. If a referendum were held today to replace the Swedish krona as a currency, would you vote “yes” or “no” with regard to introducing the euro as Sweden’s currency?
2. Are you mainly in favour of or opposed to Sweden’s EU membership, or do you not have any firm opinion?
For more information on EU and euro preferences, please refer to Sweden’s Statistical Database.
Definitions and explanations
The Party Preference Survey in May 2018 was conducted with a national random sample consisting of 8 951 persons entitled to vote in a parliamentary election, without an upper age limit. Answers from these people are collected through telephone interviews and online questionnaires. This form of mixed collection was introduced in the May 2015 survey. The sample persons were first given the option to answer the questions via an online questionnaire. If they did not reply via the online questionnaire, they were contacted via telephone later in the collection period. As in previous surveys, all available telephone numbers, both to mobile phones and home phones, have been used to contact the selected persons.
Among the sample persons, 23.2 percent could not be reached (including persons with unlisted telephone numbers and those without telephones), 3.4 percent were unable to be interviewed and 21.6 percent did not want to be interviewed. Total non-response rate was 48.3 percent. The total number of respondents was 4 632, which corresponds to 51.7 percent. In addition, sometimes, some persons do not want to answer certain questions. The data was collected between 27 April and 29 May. A more detailed presentation of non-response is available in table 23 of the publication “Political Party Preference Survey May 2018”.
The results are presented in point estimates ± margins of error. The interval that is formed by the percent estimate ± margin of error here is a 95 percent uncertainty interval, which is an interval that, with 95 percent probability, includes the actual value of the population, if no systematic errors occur.
Publication
In the table appendix of the publication, results are also presented by region, foreign/Swedish background, civil status, children, income, form of housing, occupation, socio-economic group, sector and union membership.
Next publishing will be
The November 2018 estimate of election results in parliamentary elections will be published on 4 December 2018.
Political party preferences and EU and euro preferences for November 2018 will be published on 7 December 2018.
Statistical Database
More information is available in the Statistical Database
Feel free to use the facts from this statistical news but remember to state Source: Statistics Sweden.