Political Party Preference Survey in May - Political party preferences
Political party preferences in May 2020
Statistical news from Statistics Sweden 2020-06-11 9.30
The Political Party Preference Survey shows the support for the different political parties in various demographic groups. Political party preference does not refer to any specific political level and no account is taken of whether or not a person would vote. This survey also presents the EU and euro preferences of the electorate.
On 8 June, Statistics Sweden published estimates of election results, if an election had been held in May 2020. Here, Statistics Sweden presents estimates of political party preferences in the electorate, based on the same survey. Political party preference refers to the political party that persons prefer the most, which is not necessarily the same as the political party they would vote for in a parliamentary election.
The difference between the measurements is:
· Political Party Preference (preferred party) does not refer to any specific political level, such as parliamentary elections, and no account is taken of whether or not a person would vote.
· The Election today estimate refers to the results of an election held in May. The calculations of these results take into account whether or not the person would vote.
In May 2020, an adjusted method for producing estimates in the survey was introduced. For this reason, Statistics Sweden updated the Statistical Database from November 2010 and onwards with estimates calculated using the new method. To see how the adjusted method affected estimates for each political party from November 2010 to November 2019, go to the figures and tables here. For further information, see Definitions and explanations at the end of this item of statistical news.
Political party preferences are compared below with election results in a hypothetical parliamentary election in May 2020.
| Party | Party preference | Election today | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Percent | Margin of error | Percent | Margin of error | ||
|
C
|
6.9 | ±0.6 | 6.0 | ±0.5 | |
|
L
|
3.9 | ±0.5 | 3.3 | ±0.5 | |
|
M
|
20.7 | ±1.0 | 20.1 | ±0.9 | |
|
KD
|
5.8 | ±0.6 | 6.4 | ±0.6 | |
|
S
|
32.2 | ±1.2 | 33.7 | ±1.1 | |
|
V
|
8.4 | ±0.6 | 8.2 | ±0.6 | |
|
MP
|
4.2 | ±0.5 | 4.1 | ±0.5 | |
|
SD
|
16.7 | ±0.9 | 17.1 | ±0.8 | |
|
Other
|
1.2 | ±0.3 | 1.1 | ±0.3 | |
The table appendix of the May 2020 Political Party Preference Survey publication presents political party preference among various groups in the population of eligible voters. The change and distribution of political party preferences by sex, age, country of birth, and education level for each party is commented below.
Estimates in parentheses refer to results in the previous survey. These estimates are calculated using the adjusted method and may therefore differ from the estimates published in December 2019.
Political party preferences in May 2020
Centre Party
In May 2020, 6.9 ± 0.6 percent of eligible voters report that they prefer, or support, the Centre Party the most. This is not a statistically significant change compared with November 2019 (7.3 ± 0.6 percent).
Support for the Centre Party is greater among women than among men. Support is also greater among persons aged 29 years and younger, compared with those who are older. The Centre Party’s share of supporters is larger among persons born in Sweden than among foreign born persons. Support for the Centre Party is larger among persons with post-secondary education than among those upper-secondary education.
Compared with November 2019, support increased among persons 65 years and older and among persons with compulsory education. Support for the party decreased among women, among persons aged 30-49 years, among persons born in Sweden and among persons with upper secondary education. Any other changes lie within the margin of error.
Liberal Party
In May 2020, 3.9 ± 0.5 percent of eligible voters report that they support the Liberal Party. This is not a statistically significant change compared with November 2019 (4.2 ± 0.6 percent).
There are no differences between the sexes in support for the Liberal Party in May 2020. There are no distinct differences between different age groups, nor are there any differences in support between persons born in Sweden and foreign born persons. In terms of level of education, the proportion of supports is greater among those with a post-secondary education than among those with a shorter education.
Compared with November 2019, support for the party fell among women. Any other changes lie within the margin of error.
Moderate Party
In May 2020, 20.7 ± 1.0 percent of eligible voters report that they prefer, or support, the Moderate Party the most. Compared with November 2019 (18.8 ± 1.0 percent), this is a statistically significant increase.
Support for the Moderate Party is greater among men than among women. Support is also greater among persons aged 64 years and younger, compared with those aged 65 years and older. The Moderate Party has greater support among persons born in Sweden than among foreign born persons. In terms of education, support is greatest among persons with post-secondary education, less than three years.
Compared with November 2019, support for the party increased among women, among persons 18-29 years and 50-64 years, among persons born in Sweden and among those with an upper secondary education and a post-secondary education, less than three years. Any other changes lie within the margin of error.
Christian Democrats
In May 2020, 5.8 ± 0.6 percent of eligible voters report that they prefer the Christian Democrats. This is a statistically significant decrease (6.5 ± 0.6 percent) compared with November 2019.
There are no apparent differences between the sexes with regard to support for the Christian Democrats in May 2020. There are no distinct differences between different age groups and there is no statistically significant difference in support between persons born in Sweden and foreign born persons. Furthermore, there are no statistically significant differences in support in terms of level of education.
Compared with November 2019, support for the Christian Democrats decreased among women, among persons born in Sweden and among persons aged 50-64 years. Any other changes lie within the margin of error.
Social Democratic Party
In May 2020, 32.2 ± 1.2 percent of the electorate reported that they prefer, or support, the Social Democrats the most. Compared with November 2019 (27.2 ± 1.1 percent), this is a statistically significant increase.
Support for the Social Democratic Party is greater among women than among men. Older persons to a larger extent support the Social Democrats, compared with younger people; support is roughly twice as large among those 65 years and older than among those 29 years and younger. The Social Democrats have greater support among foreign born persons than among persons born in Sweden. With regard to the level of education, the Social Democrats have greater support among those with compulsory and upper secondary education than among those with post-secondary education.
Compared with November 2019, support for the Social Democrats increased among both women and men, in all age groups except for those 18-29 years, among persons born in Sweden, among those with an upper secondary education and a post-secondary education. Any other changes lie within the margin of error.
Left Party
In May 2020, 8.4 ± 0.6 percent of eligible voters state that they support the Left Party. This is not a statistically significant change compared with November 2019 (8.6 ± 0.6 percent).
Support for the Left Party is greater among women than among men. In terms of age, the percentage of persons who prefer the Left Party is greater among those aged 49 years and younger than among those aged 50 years and older. The largest support is among those aged 18-29 years. There is no statistically significant difference in support between persons born in Sweden and foreign born persons. In terms of education level, there is greater support among persons with post-secondary education than among those with compulsory education or upper secondary education.
No changes in these groups are statistically significant compared with November 2019.
Green Party
In May 2020, 4.2 ± 0.5 percent of eligible voters state that they support the Green Party. This is a statistically significant decrease (5.2 ± 0.6 percent) compared with November 2019.
The Green Party has greater support among women than among men. In terms of age, the percentage of persons who support the Green Party is larger among those aged 49 years and younger than among those aged 50 years and older. There is no statistically significant difference in support between persons born in Sweden and foreign born persons. In terms of education level, there is a larger percentage of supporters among persons with post-secondary education than among those with a shorter education. The highest level of support is among persons with longer post-secondary education.
Compared with November 2019, support for the party decreased among men, among persons aged 18-29 years and 50-64 years, among persons born in Sweden and among those with an upper secondary education. Any other changes lie within the margin of error.
Sweden Democrats
In May 2020, 16.7 ± 0.9 percent of eligible voters report that they prefer the Sweden Democrats the most. This is a statistically significant decrease (20.7 ± 1.0 percent) compared with November 2019.
The Sweden Democrats have greater support among men than among women. Support is also greater among persons aged 50 years and older, compared with those aged 49 years and younger. The Sweden Democrats have greater support among persons born in Sweden than among foreign born persons. In terms of education level, support for the party is significantly greater among persons with compulsory and upper secondary education than among those with post-secondary education.
Compared with November 2019, support for the party decreased among both men and women, in all age groups except the group 18-29 years, among persons born in Sweden and among voters across all education levels, except those with a post-secondary education longer than three years. Any other changes lie within the margin of error.
EU and euro preferences
The proportion of those who state that they are mainly in favour of Sweden’s EU membership was 57.2 ± 1.5 percent in May 2020. The percentage of persons who are opposed to EU membership was 16.8 ± 1.1 percent, and the proportion of persons who did not have an opinion was 26.0 ± 1.4 percent. This is not a statistically significant change compared to November 2019.
If a referendum on the euro had been held in May 2020, about 20.3 ± 1.2 percent would vote “yes” to the euro and about 64.3 ± 1.5 percent would vote “no”, while 15.4 ± 1.2 percent stated that they do not know how they would vote. Compared with November 2019, there was an increase in the proportion of those who state that they would vote No.
The following questions were asked: "If a referendum was held today to replace the Swedish krona as a currency, would you vote “yes” or “no” with regard to introducing the euro as Sweden’s currency?" "Are you mainly in favour of or opposed to Sweden’s EU membership, or do you not have any firm opinion?"
See the Statistical Database in the link below for EU and euro preferences presented by region, foreign/Swedish background, civil status, children, income, type of housing, employment, socioeconomic group, sector and trade union affiliation.
Definitions and explanations
Adjustment of estimation method
In May 2020, an adjusted method was implemented into the Political Party Preference Survey as a result of Statistics Sweden’s ongoing quality improvement of the survey.
The objective of the method adjustment was to adapt the estimation method to a larger non-response and to improve the precision of the estimates. In addition, this change improved comparability between the Election today estimate and the Political party preference estimate.
In connection with the publication on 8 June, the Statistical Database at Statistics Sweden was updated with recalculated estimates from November 2010 and onward. This enables comparisons over time without having to take into account the method adjustment. The results from November 2019 are also calculated using the new method in this statistical news.
At the total level, this adjusted method only leads to minor differences in the Election today estimate compared with previously reported results. However, the adjustment has a somewhat larger effect on the political party preference estimate. In particular for the political parties that are under- or over-represented among the respondents with regard to voting in the latest parliamentary election, since this information was added in the support information for political party reference. The effect emerges more clearly when the results for smaller groups are presented, such as age groups, by women and men. In the smaller reporting groups, all uncertainty intervals are also larger, which means that even if a change in the estimate is relatively large, it might not result in a statistically significant difference. To see how the adjusted method affected estimates for each political party from November 2010 to November 2019, go to the figures and tables here
The adjustments in brief
- Auxiliary information was expanded for both the Political party preference estimate and the Election today estimate.
- A transition was made to a common estimator for both estimates that was previously produced in different ways.
- The imputation method for the Election today estimate was updated.
Summarised information on the adjustments are available under “Frågor och svar – justerad metod i PSU (pdf)” (in Swedish).
Further information on the adjustments is available in Justerad skattningsmetod i Partisympatiundersökningen – En beskrivning av de metodjusteringar som implementerats i maj 2020 (pdf).
More information
In the table appendix of the publication, results are also presented by region, foreign/Swedish background, civil status, children, income, form of housing, occupation, socio-economic group, sector and union membership.
Next publishing will be
The November 2020 estimate of election results in parliamentary elections will be published on 2 December 2020.
Political party preferences and EU and euro preferences for November 2020 will be published on 8 December 2020.
Feel free to use the facts from this statistical news but remember to state Source: Statistics Sweden.