Political Party Preference Survey in May - Political party preferences
Political party preferences in May 2022
Statistical news from Statistics Sweden 2022-06-08 8.00
The Political Party Preference Survey shows in which demographic groups the political parties have their greatest support. Political party preference does not refer to any specific political level and no account is taken of whether or not a person would vote. This survey also presents the EU and euro preferences of the electorate and the attitude to a Swedish membership in NATO.
On 2 June, Statistics Sweden published estimates of election results, if an election had been held in May 2022. Based on the same survey, estimates of political party preferences in the electorate are presented here. Political party preference refers to the political party that a person prefers the most, which is not necessarily the same as the political party they would vote for in a parliamentary election.
The difference between the measurements is:
- Political Party Preference (preferred party) does not refer to any specific political level, such as parliamentary elections, and no account is taken of whether or not a person would vote.
- The “Election Today” estimate refers to the results of an election in May. These calculations of the results take into account whether or not the person would vote.
Political party preferences are compared below with election results in a hypothetical parliamentary election in May 2022.
| Party | Party preference | "Election today" | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Percent | Margin of error | Percent | Margin of error | ||
| C | 6.6 | ±0.7 | 6.7 | ±0.7 | |
| L | 3.6 | ±0.5 | 3.4 | ±0.5 | |
| M | 21.4 | ±1.2 | 21.3 | ±1.1 | |
| KD | 5.1 | ±0.6 | 5.2 | ±0.6 | |
| S | 33.0 | ±1.3 | 33.3 | ±1.3 | |
| V | 8.4 | ±0.8 | 7.8 | ±0.7 | |
| MP | 3.4 | ±0.6 | 3.3 | ±0.5 | |
| SD | 16.5 | ±1.0 | 17.0 | ±1.0 | |
| Other | 1.9 | ±0.5 | 2.0 | ±0.5 | |
The table appendix of the Political Party Preference Survey May 2022 publication presents political party preference among different groups in the population of eligible voters. Changes and the distribution of political party preferences by sex, age, country of birth, and educational attainment for each party are commented below. Estimates in parentheses refer to results in the previous survey.
Political party preferences in May 2022
Centre Party (C)
In May 2022, 6.6 ± 0.7 percent of eligible voters stated that they prefer the Centre Party the most. This is a statistically significant decrease compared with November 2021 (8.5 ± 0.8 percent).
Compared with November 2021, support for the Centre Party has decreased both among men and women, among people aged 30-64 years, among people born in Sweden and among those with a secondary and post-secondary education, at least three years. Any other changes lie within the margin of uncertainty.
Liberal Party (L)
In May 2022, 3.6 ± 0.5 percent of eligible voters stated that they prefer the Liberal Party. This is a statistically significant increase compared with November 2021 (3.0 ± 0.5 percent).
Compared with November 2021, support for the Liberal Party has increased among people aged 65 years and older, among people born in Sweden and among those with a secondary education. Any other changes lie within the margin of uncertainty.
Moderate Party (M)
In May 2022, 21.4 ± 1.2 percent of eligible voters stated that they prefer the Moderate Party the most. This is not a statistically significant change compared with November 2021 (22.4 ± 1.1 percent).
Compared with November 2021, support for the Moderate Party decreased among people aged 50-64 years, among persons born in Sweden and among those with a shorter post-secondary education. Any other changes lie within the margin of uncertainty.
Christian Democrats (KD)
In May 2022, 5.1 ± 0.6 percent of the electorate stated that they prefer the Christian Democrats. This is a statistically significant increase compared with November 2021 (4.4 ± 0.6 percent).
Compared with November 2021, support for the Christian Democrats has increased among women, among persons born in Sweden and among those with a secondary education. Any other changes lie within the margin of uncertainty.
Social Democratic Party (S)
In May 2022, 33.0 ± 1.3 percent of the electorate stated that they prefer the Social Democratic Party the most. This is a statistically significant increase compared with November 2021 (30.1 ± 1.2 percent).
Compared with November 2021, support for the Social Democrat Party has increased among both men and women, among people aged 30-64 years, among persons born in Sweden and among those with a secondary and post-secondary education. Any other changes lie within the margin of uncertainty.
Left Party (V)
In May 2022, 8.4 ± 0.8 percent of eligible voters stated that they prefer the Left Party. This is a statistically significant decrease compared with November 2021 (9.6 ± 0.7 percent).
Compared with November 2021, support for the Left Party has decreased among women, among people aged 30-49 years, among foreign born persons and among those with a secondary and post-secondary education, at least three years. Any other changes lie within the margin of uncertainty.
Green Party (MP)
In May 2022, 3.4 ± 0.6 percent of eligible voters stated that they support the Green Party. This is a statistically significant decrease compared with November 2021 (4.0 ± 0.6 percent).
Compared with November 2021, support for the Green Party has decreased among people aged 18-29 years, among persons born in Sweden and among those with a secondary education. Any other changes lie within the margin of uncertainty.
Sweden Democrats (SD)
In May 2022, 16.5 ± 1.0 percent of eligible voters stated that they prefer the Sweden Democrats the most. This is not a statistically significant change compared with November 2021 (17.0 ± 1.0 percent).
All changes compared with November 2021 with regard to sex, age, country of birth, and educational attainment lie within the margin of uncertainty.
EU and euro preferences
The proportion of those who stated that they are mainly in favour of Sweden’s EU membership was 63.8 ± 1.5 percent in May 2022. The percentage of persons who are opposed to EU membership was 11.8 ± 1.0 percent, and the percentage of persons who did not have an opinion was 24.4 ± 1.4 percent.
Compared with November 2021, there has been a statistically significant increase in the proportion of those who state that they are in favour and a significant decrease of those who are opposed to and those who did not have an opinion to EU membership.
If a referendum on the euro was held in May 2022, 22.6 ± 1.3 percent would vote yes to the euro, and 58.1 ± 1.6 percent would vote no, while 19.3 ± 1.3 percent stated that they do not know how they would vote.
Compared with November 2021, there has been a statistically significant increase in the proportion of those who state that they would vote yes and those who do not know how they would vote while there has been a statistically significant decrease in proportion of those who would have voted no.
The following questions were asked: "Are you mainly in favour of or opposed to Sweden’s EU membership, or do you not have any firm opinion?" and "If a referendum was held today to replace the Swedish krona as a currency, would you vote “yes” or “no” with regard to introducing the euro as Sweden’s currency?"
See the Statistical Database in the link below for EU and euro preferences presented by region, foreign/Swedish background, civil status, children, income, type of housing, employment, socio-economic group, sector and trade union affiliation.
The electorate's attitude towards a Swedish membership in NATO
The Political Party Preference Survey conducted in May 2022 included a question about the attitude towards a Swedish NATO membership. The question that was asked was "Are you positive or negative towards a Swedish membership in NATO?", with the answer options being “very positive”, “quite positive”, “quite negative”, “very negative” and “do not know” or “do not want to answer the question”.
In May 2022, 22.6 ± 1.3 percent of the respondents stated that they were very positive towards a Swedish NATO membership, 39.9 ± 1.6 percent quite positive, 13.7 ± 1.1 percent quite negative, and 8.8 ± 1.0 percent stated that they were very negative. 14.9 ± 1.2 percent stated that they did not know or that they did not want to answer the question.
The tables below present estimates of the electorate’s attitude towards a Swedish membership in NATO by sex and political party preference.
| Very positive | Quite positive | Quite negative | Very negative | Don't know/unwilling to answer | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| % | ± | % | ± | % | ± | % | ± | % | ± | ||
| Women | 16.3 | ±1.7 | 40.4 | ±2.3 | 15.0 | ±1.6 | 8.2 | ±1.3 | 20.1 | ±2.0 | |
| Men | 29.0 | ±2.1 | 39.4 | ±2.3 | 12.5 | ±1.6 | 9.6 | ±1.4 | 9.6 | ±1.4 | |
| Total | 22.6 | ±1.3 | 39.9 | ±1.6 | 13.7 | ±1.1 | 8.8 | ±1.0 | 14.9 | ±1.2 | |
| Very positive | Quite positive | Quite negative | Very negative | Don't know/unwilling to answer | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| % | ± | % | ± | % | ± | % | ± | % | ± | ||
| C | 16.1 | ±4.6 | 51.9 | ±6.5 | 16.9 | ±5.4 | 2.3 | ±1.8 | 12.8 | ±4.2 | |
| L | 38.7 | ±7.6 | 45.3 | ±7.9 | 4.8 | ±2.9 | .. | .. | 9.5 | ±4.8 | |
| M | 40.4 | ±3.5 | 40.5 | ±3.5 | 8.2 | ±2.0 | 3.3 | ±1.6 | 7.6 | ±2.2 | |
| KD | 30.2 | ±6.6 | 47.4 | ±7.4 | 10.6 | ±5.0 | 4.9 | ±3.3 | 6.9 | ±3.9 | |
| S | 16.0 | ±2.3 | 44.4 | ±2.9 | 15.4 | ±2.1 | 6.5 | ±1.6 | 17.7 | ±2.3 | |
| V | 3.5 | ±2.4 | 24.6 | ±5.2 | 29.5 | ±5.2 | 28.0 | ±5.2 | 14.5 | ±4.3 | |
| MP | 10.8 | ±6.9 | 35.8 | ±8.5 | 26.8 | ±8.3 | 9.6 | ±5.6 | 17.0 | ±7.2 | |
| SD | 32.5 | ±4.3 | 37.0 | ±4.5 | 11.1 | ±2.9 | 8.8 | ±2.6 | 10.6 | ±2.7 | |
| Total | 22.6 | ±1.3 | 39.9 | ±1.6 | 13.7 | ±1.1 | 8.8 | ±1.0 | 14.9 | ±1.2 | |
Definitions and explanations
The Party Preference Survey in May 2022 was conducted with a national random sample consisting of 9 228 persons entitled to vote in a parliamentary election, without any upper age limit. Answers from these people are collected through telephone interviews and online questionnaires. As in previous surveys, all available telephone numbers, both to mobile phones and fixed phones, have been used to contact the selected persons.
Among the sample persons, 34.0 percent could not be reached, 2.4 percent were unable to participate, and 17.2 percent did not wish to be participate. The total non-response rate was 53.7 percent. The total number of respondents was 4 274, which corresponds to 46.3 percent. A more detailed presentation of non-response is available in table 23 of the publication “Political Party Preference Survey May 2022”.
The data was collected during the period from 28 April to 25 May.
The results are presented in the form of point estimates ± margins of uncertainty. The interval that is formed by the percent estimate ± margin of uncertainty here is a 95 percent inaccuracy interval, which is an interval that, with 95 percent confidence, includes the actual value of the population, if there are no systematic errors.
Publication
In the table appendix of the publication, results are also presented by region, foreign/Swedish background, civil status, children, income, form of housing, occupation, socio-economic group, sector and union membership.
Next publishing will be
The estimate of November 2022 parliamentary election results will be published on 1 December 2022.
Political party preferences and EU and euro preferences in November 2022 will be published on 7 December 2022.
Feel free to use the facts from this statistical news but remember to state Source: Statistics Sweden.