Political Party Preference Survey in November - Political party preferences
Political party preferences in November 2019
Statistical news from Statistics Sweden 2019-12-10 9.30
The Political Party Preference Survey shows the support for the different political parties in various demographic groups. Political party preference does not refer to any specific political level and no account is taken of whether or not a person would vote. This survey also presents the EU and euro preferences of the electorate.
On 3 December, Statistics Sweden published estimates of election results if an election were held in November 2019. Here, Statistics Sweden presents estimates of political party preferences in the electorate, based on the same survey. Political party preference refers to the political party that persons prefer the most, which is not necessarily the same as the political party they would vote for in a parliamentary election.
The difference between the measurements is:
- Political Party Preference does not refer to any specific political level, such as parliamentary elections, and no account is taken of whether or not a person would vote. The results are weighted by region, sex, age, level of education and Swedish/foreign born.
- The “Election Today” estimate refers to the results of an election in November. The results are weighted by how people voted in the previous parliamentary election, as well as by whether or not a person would vote.
Since the Election Today estimate and the Political Party Preference estimate are weighted differently, caution should be used when making comparisons.
The distribution of political party preferences among women and men in the electorate is shown below.
| Party | Women | Men | Total | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Percent | Margin of error | Percent | Margin of error | Percent | Margin of error | ||
|
C
|
9.5 | ±1.3 | 5.7 | ±1.0 | 7.6 | ±0.8 | |
|
L
|
5.0 | ±1.0 | 3.7 | ±0.8 | 4.4 | ±0.6 | |
|
M
|
16.0 | ±1.7 | 21.7 | ±1.8 | 18.9 | ±1.2 | |
|
KD
|
7.4 | ±1.2 | 6.5 | ±1.1 | 7.0 | ±0.8 | |
|
S
|
30.2 | ±2.1 | 25.0 | ±1.9 | 27.6 | ±1.4 | |
|
V
|
10.8 | ±1.4 | 8.3 | ±1.2 | 9.5 | ±0.9 | |
|
MP
|
7.0 | ±1.2 | 4.1 | ±0.9 | 5.6 | ±0.7 | |
|
SD
|
13.0 | ±1.5 | 23.2 | ±1.8 | 18.1 | ±1.2 | |
|
Other
|
1.0 | ±0.4 | 1.7 | ±0.6 | 1.4 | ±0.4 | |
The table appendix of the Political Party Preference Survey November 2019 publication presents political party preference among different groups in the population of eligible voters. Comments on the distribution of and changes in political party preferences based on sex, age, country of birth, and educational level are included here for each political party. Estimates in parentheses refer to results in the previous survey.
Political party preferences in November 2019
Centre Party
In November 2019, 7.6 ± 0.8 percent of eligible voters report that they prefer the Centre Party the most. This is not a statistically significant change compared with May 2019 (7.9 ± 0.9 percent).
Support for the Centre Party is greater among women than among men. Support is also greater among persons aged 49 years and younger, compared with those aged 50 years and older. The Centre Party’s share of supporters is larger among Swedish born persons than among foreign born persons. Support is lower among persons with compulsory education than among both persons with upper-secondary education and persons with post-secondary education.
Compared with May 2019, support for the Centre Party among persons aged 65 years and older has decreased. Any other changes lie within the margin of error.
Liberal Party
In November 2019, 4.4 ± 0.6 percent of eligible voters report that they prefer the Liberal Party. Compared with May 2019 (5.1 ± 0.7 percent), this is a statistically significant decrease.
In November 2019, support for the Liberal Party is greater among women than among men. There are no distinct differences between different age groups, nor are there any differences in support between Swedish born persons and foreign born persons. In terms of the educational level, the percentage of supporters is larger among those with post-secondary education than among those with a shorter education. The largest level of support is among persons with longer post-secondary education.
Compared with May 2019, support for the Liberal Party has decreased among men, Swedish born persons, and those with compulsory education. Any other changes lie within the margin of error.
Moderate Party
In November 2019, 18.9 ± 1.2 percent of eligible voters stated that they prefer the Moderate Party the most. Compared with May 2019 (16.9 ± 1.2 percent), this is a statistically significant increase.
Support for the Moderate Party is greater among men than among women. Support is also greater among persons aged 49 years and younger, compared with those aged 50 years and older. The Moderate Party has greater support among Swedish born persons than among foreign born persons. There are no distinct differences in support based on level of education.
Compared with May 2019, support for the Moderate Party has increased among both women and men, among persons aged 65 years and older, among Swedish born persons, and among those with shorter post-secondary education. Other changes lie within the margin of error.
Christian Democrats
In November 2019, 7.0 ± 0.8 percent of the electorate stated that they prefer the Christian Democrats. Compared with May 2019 (10.5 ± 0.9 percent), this is a statistically significant decrease.
There are no discernible differences between the sexes with regard to support for the Christian Democrats in November 2019. There are no distinct differences between different age groups and there is no statistically significant difference in support between Swedish born persons and foreign born persons. Furthermore, there are no statistically significant differences in support based on level of education.
Compared with May 2019, support for the Christian Democrats has decreased among both women and men, in all age groups except the youngest group (18-29 years), among Swedish born persons, and across all educational levels. Any other changes lie within the margin of error.
Social Democratic Party
In November 2019, 27.6 ± 1.4 percent of the electorate stated that they prefer the Social Democratic Party the most. Compared with May 2019 (30.3 ± 1.4 percent), this is a statistically significant decrease.
Support for the Social Democratic Party is greater among women than among men. Older people support the Social Democratic Party to a greater extent than younger people and the party has greater support among foreign born persons than among Swedish born persons. In terms of educational level, there is greater support among persons with compulsory education than among those with upper-secondary education and post-secondary education.
Compared with May 2019, support for the Social Democratic Party has decreased among women, among persons aged 18-29 years and those aged 65 years and older, among both foreign born persons and Swedish born persons, and among those with compulsory education and upper-secondary education. Other changes lie within the margin of error.
Left Party
In November 2019, 9.5 ± 0.9 percent of eligible voters stated that they prefer the Left Party. This is not a statistically significant change compared with May 2019 (9.2 ± 0.9 percent).
Support for the Left Party is greater among women than among men. In terms of age, the percentage of persons who prefer the Left Party is greater among those aged 49 years and younger than among those aged 50 years and older. There is no statistically significant difference in support between Swedish born persons and foreign born persons. In terms of educational level, there is greater support among persons with post-secondary education than among those with compulsory education or upper-secondary education.
Compared with May 2019, support for the Left Party has increased among foreign born persons and among persons with compulsory education. Any other changes lie within the margin of error.
Green Party
In November 2019, 5.6 ± 0.7 percent of eligible voters stated that they prefer the Green Party. This is not a statistically significant change compared with May 2019 (5.4 ± 0.7 percent).
The Green Party has greater support among women than among men. In terms of age, the percentage of persons who support the Green Party is larger among those aged 49 years and younger than among those aged 50 years and older. There is no statistically significant difference in support between Swedish born persons and foreign born persons. In terms of educational level, there is a larger percentage of supporters among persons with post-secondary education than among those with a shorter education. The largest level of support is among persons with longer post-secondary education.
Compared with May 2019, support for the Green Party has increased among persons aged 30-49 years, while support has decreased among persons aged 65 years or older. Any other changes lie within the margin of error.
Sweden Democrats
In November 2019, 18.1 ± 1.2 percent of eligible voters stated that they prefer the Sweden Democrats the most. Compared with May 2019 (12.8 ± 1.0 percent), this is a statistically significant increase.
The Sweden Democrats have greater support among men than among women. Support is greater among persons aged 50 years and older, compared with persons aged 18-49 years. The Sweden Democrats have greater support among Swedish born persons than among foreign born persons. In terms of educational level, support for the party is significantly greater among persons with compulsory and upper-secondary education than among those with post-secondary education.
Compared with May 2019, support for the Sweden Democrats has increased among both men and women, in all age groups except the group aged 18-29, among both Swedish born persons and foreign born persons, and among voters at all educational levels except among those with post-secondary education longer than three years.
EU and euro preferences
The percentage of persons who stated that they are mainly in favour of Sweden’s EU membership was 60.1 ± 1.4 percent in November 2019. The percentage of persons who are opposed to EU membership was 15.6 ± 1.1 percent, and the percentage of persons who did not have an opinion was 24.3 ± 1.3 percent.
Compared with May 2019, the percentage of persons who stated that they are in favour of EU membership has decreased, while the percentage of persons who stated that they are opposed to EU membership has increased.
If a referendum on the euro was held in November 2019, 21.4 ± 1.2 percent would vote “yes” to the euro, and 62.5 ± 1.4 percent would vote “no”, while 16.0 ± 1.1 percent stated that they do not know how they would vote. Compared with May 2019, the percentage of persons who stated that they would vote “yes” to the euro and the percentage of those do not know how they would vote has increased, while the percentage of persons who would vote “no” to the euro has decreased.
Footnote
The following questions were asked:
1. If a referendum were held today to replace the Swedish krona as a currency, would you vote “yes” or “no” with regard to introducing the euro as Sweden’s currency?
2. Are you mainly in favour of or opposed to Sweden’s EU membership, or do you not have any firm opinion?
See the Statistical Database in the link below for EU and euro preferences presented by region, foreign/Swedish background, civil status, children, income, type of housing, employment, socioeconomic group, sector and trade union membership.
Definitions and explanations
The Party Preference Survey in November 2019 was conducted with a national random sample consisting of 9 149 persons entitled to vote in a parliamentary election, without an upper age limit. Answers from these persons are collected through telephone interviews and online questionnaires. The sample persons were first given the option to answer the questions via an online questionnaire. If they did not reply via the online questionnaire, they were contacted via telephone later in the collection period. As in previous surveys, all available telephone numbers, both to mobile phones and landline phones, have been used to contact the selected persons.
The data was collected during the period from 28 October to 26 November.
Among the sample persons, 26.8 percent could not be reached (including persons with unlisted telephone numbers and those without telephones), 3.0 percent were unable to participate, and 19.5 percent did not want to be participate. The total non-response rate was 49.2 percent. There were 4 645 respondents in total, which corresponds to 50.8 percent. Occasionally, persons do not want to answer certain questions. A more detailed presentation of non-response is available in table 23 of the publication “Political Party Preference Survey November 2019”.
The results are presented in the form of point estimates ± margins of error. The interval that is formed by the percent estimate ± margin of error here is a 95 percent inaccuracy interval, which is an interval that, with 95 percent probability, includes the actual value of the population, if there are no systematic errors.
Publication
In the table appendix of this publication, results are also presented by region, foreign/Swedish background, civil status, children, income, form of housing, occupation, socio-economic group, sector and trade union membership.
Next publishing will be
The estimate of May 2020 parliamentary election results will be published on 3 June 2020.
Political party preferences and EU and euro preferences for May 2020 will be published on 9 June 2020.
Statistical Database
More information is available in the Statistical Database
Feel free to use the facts from this statistical news but remember to state Source: Statistics Sweden.