Political Party Preference Survey in November - Political party preferences
Political party preferences in November 2020
Statistical news from Statistics Sweden 2020-12-08 9.30
The Political Party Preference Survey shows the support for the different political parties in various demographic groups. Political party preference does not refer to any specific political level and no account is taken of whether or not a person would vote. This survey also presents the EU and euro preferences of the electorate.
On 2 December, Statistics Sweden published estimates of election results, if an election had been held in November 2020. Here, Statistics Sweden presents estimates of political party preferences in the electorate, based on the same survey. Political party preference refers to the political party that persons prefer the most, which is not necessarily the same as the political party they would vote for in a parliamentary election.
The difference between the measurements is:
- Political Party Preference (preferred party) does not refer to any specific political level, such as parliamentary elections, and no account is taken of whether or not a person would vote.
- The “Election Today” estimate refers to the results of an election in November. The calculations of the results take into account whether or not the person would vote.
Political party preferences are compared below with election results in a hypothetical parliamentary election in November 2020.
| Party | Party preference | "Election today" | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Percent | Margin of error | Percent | Margin of error | ||
|
C
|
7.3 | ±0.7 | 7.6 | ±0.6 | |
|
L
|
3.8 | ±0.5 | 3.0 | ±0.4 | |
|
M
|
22.2 | ±1.0 | 22.1 | ±1.0 | |
|
KD
|
5.3 | ±0.6 | 5.4 | ±0.6 | |
|
S
|
29.9 | ±1.2 | 29.4 | ±1.1 | |
|
V
|
9.2 | ±0.7 | 9.3 | ±0.7 | |
|
MP
|
3.9 | ±0.6 | 4.2 | ±0.6 | |
|
SD
|
16.8 | ±0.9 | 17.6 | ±0.9 | |
|
Other
|
1.7 | ±0.5 | 1.5 | ±0.5 | |
The table appendix of the Political Party Preference Survey November 2020 publication shows political party preference among different groups in the population of eligible voters. The change and distribution of political party preferences by sex, age, country of birth, and education level for each party are described below. Estimates in parentheses refer to results in the previous survey.
Political party preferences in November 2020
Centre Party
In November 2020, 7.3 ± 0.7 percent of eligible voters reported that they prefer the Centre Party the most. This is not a statistically significant change compared with May 2020 (6.9 ± 0.6 percent).
Support for the Centre Party is greater among women than among men. Support is also greater among persons aged 29 years and younger, compared with those who are older. There are no distinct differences in support based on level of education. The Centre Party’s share of supporters is larger among Swedish born persons than among foreign born persons.
Support among persons with upper secondary education increased compared with May 2020. Any other changes lie within the margin of uncertainty.
Liberal Party
In November 2020, 3.8 ± 0.5 percent of eligible voters reported that they prefer the Liberal Party. This is not a statistically significant change compared with May 2020 (3.9 ± 0.5 percent).
There are no discernible differences between the sexes with regard to support for the Liberal Party in November 2020. There are no distinct differences between different age groups, nor are there any differences in support between Swedish born persons and foreign born persons. In terms of level of education, the proportion of persons who support the Liberal Party is greater among those with a post-secondary education than among those with a shorter education.
All changes compared with May 2020 on the basis of sex, country of birth, and level of education lie within the margin of uncertainty.
Moderate Party
In November 2020, 22.2 ± 1.0 percent of eligible voters stated that they prefer the Moderate Party. Compared with May 2020 (20.7 ± 1.0 percent) this increase is statistically significant.
There are no discernible differences between the sexes with regard to support for the Moderate Party. In addition, there are no clear differences in support between the age groups. The Moderate Party has greater support among Swedish born persons than among foreign born persons. In terms of level of education, the proportion of persons who support the party is greater among those with a post-secondary education than among those with a shorter education.
Compared with May 2020, support for the party increased among women, among persons aged 50 years and older, among persons born in Sweden and among those with a post-secondary education, at least three years. Any other changes lie within the margin of uncertainty.
Christian Democrats
In November 2020, 5.3 ± 0.6 percent of the electorate stated that they prefer the Christian Democrats. This is not a statistically significant change compared with May 2020 (5.8 ± 0.6 percent).
There are no discernible differences between the sexes with regard to support for the Christian Democrats in November 2020. Support is greater among persons younger than 65 years, compared with those aged 65 years and older. The Christian Democrats have greater support among Swedish born persons than among foreign born persons. There are no distinct differences in support based on level of education.
Compared with May 2020, support for the Christian Democrats has decreased among persons with post-secondary education, at least three years. Any other changes lie within the margin of uncertainty.
Social Democratic Party
In November 2020, 29.9 ± 1.2 percent of the electorate stated that they prefer the Social Democratic Party. Compared with May 2020 (32.2 ± 1.2 percent), this is a statistically significant decrease.
In November 2020, support for the Social Democratic Party was greater among women than among men. Persons aged 30 years and older to a greater extent support the Social Democratic Party, compared with younger people. The Social Democratic Party has most support among persons aged 65 years and older. Support is greater among foreign born persons than among persons born in Sweden. Support for the Social Democratic Party is greater among persons with compulsory education than among those with post-secondary education.
Compared with May 2020, support for the Social Democratic Party has decreased among both women and men. Furthermore, support has decreased among those in the age group 50-64 years, among Swedish born persons, and among those with upper secondary education. Any other changes lie within the margin of uncertainty.
Left Party
In November 2020, 9.2 ± 0.7 percent of eligible voters stated that they prefer the Left Party. Compared with May 2020 (8.4 ± 0.6 percent) this increase is statistically significant.
Support for the Left Party is greater among women than among men. In terms of age, the percentage of persons who prefer the Left Party is greater among those younger than 50 years compared with those aged 50 years and older. There is no statistically significant difference in support between persons born in Sweden and foreign born persons. On the basis of level of education, support for the Left Party is larger among those with post-secondary education, three years or more.
Compared with May 2020, support for the Left Party has increased among women, among Swedish born persons, and among those with upper secondary education. Any other changes lie within the margin of uncertainty.
Green Party
In November 2020, 3.9 ± 0.6 percent of eligible voters stated that they support the Green Party. This is not a statistically significant change compared with May 2020 (4.2 ± 0.5 percent).
The Green Party has greater support among women than among men. In terms of age, the percentage of persons who support the Green Party is larger among those younger than 50 years compared with those aged 50 years and older. There is no statistically significant difference in support between persons born in Sweden and foreign born persons. On the basis of level of education, the proportion of persons who support the Green Party is larger among those with post-secondary education, at least three years, compared with those with a shorter education.
All changes compared with May 2020 on the basis of sex, country of birth, and level of education lie within the margin of uncertainty.
Sweden Democrats
In November 2020, 16.8 ± 0.9 percent of eligible voters stated that they prefer the Sweden Democrats. This is not a statistically significant change compared with May 2020 (16.7 ± 0.9 percent).
The Sweden Democrats have greater support among men than among women. The largest support is among those aged 50-64 years, compared with other age groups. The Sweden Democrats have greater support among Swedish born persons than among foreign born persons. On the basis of level of education, support for the party is greater among persons with compulsory and upper-secondary education than among those with post-secondary education.
Compared with May 2020, support for the Sweden Democrats among persons aged 65 years and older has decreased. Any other changes lie within the margin of uncertainty.
EU and euro preferences
The proportion of those who stated that they are mainly in favour of Sweden’s EU membership was 57.1 ± 1.5 percent in November 2020. The percentage of persons who are opposed to EU membership was 17.4 ± 1.1 percent, and the percentage of persons who did not have an opinion was 25.5 ± 1.4 percent. This is not a statistically significant change compared with May 2020.
If a referendum on the euro had been held in November 2020, 19.2 ± 1.2 percent would vote “yes” to the euro, and 64.3 ± 1.5 percent would vote “no”, while 16.5 ± 1.2 percent stated that they do not know how they would vote. This is not a statistically significant change compared with May 2020.
The following questions were asked
- If a referendum was held today to replace the Swedish krona as a currency, would you vote “yes” or “no” with regard to introducing the euro as Sweden’s currency?
- Are you mainly in favour of or opposed to Sweden’s EU membership, or do you not have any firm opinion?
See the Statistical Database in the link below for EU and euro preferences presented by region, foreign/Swedish background, civil status, children, income, type of housing, employment, socio-economic group, sector and trade union affiliation.
Definitions and explanations
The Party Preference Survey in November 2020 was conducted with a national random sample consisting of 9 173 persons entitled to vote in a parliamentary election, without an upper age limit. Answers from these people are collected through telephone interviews and online questionnaires. As in previous surveys, all available telephone numbers, both to mobile phones and fixed phones, have been used to contact the selected persons.
Among the sample persons, 28.7 percent could not be reached, 2.5 percent were unable to participate, and 17.6 percent did not want to be participate. The total non-response rate was 48.8 percent. There were 4 692 respondents in total, which corresponds to 51.2 percent. A more detailed presentation of non-response is available in table 23 of the publication “Political Party Preference Survey November 2020”.
The data was collected during the period from 2 November to 26 November.
The results are presented in the form of point estimates ± margins of uncertainty. The interval that is formed by the percent estimate ± margin of uncertainty here is a 95 percent inaccuracy interval, which is an interval that, with 95 percent probability, includes the actual value of the population, if there are no systematic errors.
Adjustment of estimation method
In May 2020, an adjusted method was implemented into the Political Party Preference Survey as part of Statistics Sweden’s ongoing quality improvement of the survey.
The objective of the method adjustment was to adapt the estimation method to a larger non-response and to improve the precision of the estimates. In addition, this change improved comparability between the Election today estimate and the Political party preference estimate.
In connection with the publication in May 2020, the Statistical Database at Statistics Sweden was also updated with recalculated estimates from November 2010 and onward. This enables comparisons over time without having to take into account the method adjustment.
Summarised information on the adjustments are available under “Frågor och svar – justerad metod i PSU (pdf)” (in Swedish).
Further information on the adjustments is available in Justerad skattningsmetod i Partisympatiundersökningen – En beskrivning av de metodjusteringar som implementerats i maj 2020 (pdf).
More information
In the table appendix of the publication, results are also presented by region, foreign/Swedish background, civil status, children, income, form of housing, occupation, socio-economic group, sector and union membership.
Publication
Next publishing will be
The estimate of May 2021 parliamentary election results will be published on 2 June 2021.
Political party preferences and EU and euro preferences in May 2021 will be published on 8 June 2021.
Feel free to use the facts from this statistical news but remember to state Source: Statistics Sweden.