Consumer Price Index (CPI), September 2020
Inflation rate dropped to 0.3 percent in September 2020
Statistical news from Statistics Sweden 2020-10-13 9.30
The inflation rate according to the CPIF (Consumer Price Index with fixed interest rate) was 0.3 percent in September 2020, down from 0.7 percent in August. The change on a monthly basis between August and September was 0.1 percent.
In brief
- Significant drop in prices of package holidays slowed the inflation rate
- Prices for clothes remained seasonally normal
- Declines in food prices were unusually large in September
- 1.0 percent of the basket was imputed following an absence of consumption due to the coronavirus pandemic
| Index Numbers | Monthly changes, percent | Annual changes, percent | |
|---|---|---|---|
| CPI (1980=100) | 337.27 | 0.1 | 0.4 |
| CPIF (1987=100) | 220.47 | 0.1 | 0.3 |
| CPIF-XE (1987=100) | 208.67 | 0.0 | 0.9 |
Package holiday prices fell sharply while price increases on clothes remained seasonally normal
The CPIF rose by 0.1 percent between August and September. In the corresponding period a year ago, the CPIF rose by 0.5 percent.
The largest contribution to the CPIF monthly rate came from seasonally normal price increases on clothes. After abnormal seasonal patterns since the beginning of the coronavirus pandemic in Sweden, in recent months prices have returned to more seasonally normal levels. Prices on electricity, gas and other household fuels increased, but remained low compared to the same period a year ago. Furthermore, furniture prices rose after summer sales in June and August. Further upward contributions also came from price increases on other recreational items.
These price increases were mainly offset by lower prices for package holidays. The range of destinations has remained more or less the same since last year, albeit with fewer departures and fewer travellers. Prices for food and non-alcoholic beverages also fell from August to September. This decrease can be explained by minor price declines on a number of different products, as well as seasonal price reductions on apples.
The table below shows changes on a monthly basis and contributions to the CPIF based on the goods and services that had the largest impact on the CPIF in September 2020. The results are reported per COICOP category; COICOP refers to the United Nations classification of household consumption expenditure.
| Category (Coicop) | Monthly changes, percent |
Contribution to CPIF Monthly change, percentage points |
|---|---|---|
| Food and non-alcoholic beverages (01) | ‑1.2 | ‑0.2 |
| Clothing (03.1) | 7.4 | 0.3 |
| Electricity, gas and other fuels (04.5) | 1.5 | 0.1 |
| Furniture (05.1) | 2.2 | 0.1 |
| Passenger transport by air (07.3) | ‑12.2 | ‑0.1 |
| Other recreational items (09.3) | 2.3 | 0.1 |
| Package holidays (09.6) | ‑18.2 | ‑0.2 |
Seasonal patterns and temporary price changes
Price changes on goods and services may be seasonal or temporary. The figure above shows effects on a monthly basis for the goods and services with the largest impact on the CPIF.
Prices for electricity, gas and fuels rose from previously lower price levels. Furniture prices increased, as they did in the same period in 2019, although not in 2018. As in previous years, prices of other recreational items rose. However, the increase was slightly higher than in the same period a year ago.
Prices for package holidays fell more in September 2020 than in the last two years, which led to a larger negative contribution to the CPIF. In addition, prices on food and non-alcoholic beverages fell in September, after relatively high price levels in the summer.
The inflation rate in September
The inflation rate according to the CPIF, that is, the change in the CPIF over the past 12-month period, was 0.3 percent in September 2020, down from 0.7 percent in August.
Rising housing costs made an upward contribution to the change in the CPIF in September. Prices also increased for restaurant visits, and miscellaneous goods and services. Within the miscellaneous goods and services category, rising prices for jewellery were among the upward contributors.
This increase was mainly offset by falling prices on fuel. Downward contributions came from recreation and culture, in particular prices for package holidays. Other downward contributions came from lower prices for electricity and fuel, accommodation and telephone equipment.
The inflation rate according to the CPIF excluding energy was 0.9 percent in September, down from 1.4 percent in August.
| Category (Coicop) | Yearly change, percent |
Contribution yearly change CPIF percentage points |
|---|---|---|
| Electricity, gas and other fuels (04.5) | ‑4.7 | ‑0.2 |
| Rented and housing co-operative dwellings: rent incl. heating (04.S) | 1.6 | 0.2 |
| Housing (04.x) | 2.2 | 0.1 |
| Fuel (07.2.2) | ‑10.5 | ‑0.3 |
| Other services in respect of personal transport equipment (07.2.4) | 11.2 | 0.1 |
| Telephone equipment (08.2) | ‑11.2 | ‑0.2 |
| Recreation and culture (09) | ‑2.4 | ‑0.3 |
| Package holidays (09.6) | ‑18.8 | ‑0.2 |
| Restaurants (11.1) | 2.1 | 0.2 |
| Accommodation services (11.2) | ‑13.8 | ‑0.1 |
| Misc. Goods and services (12) | 2.4 | 0.2 |
Other measures of inflation
Statistics Sweden uses different inflation measures for different purposes. The CPIF is the Riksbank’s target variable, while the CPI is the measure used for purposes of compensation.
Effects of the coronavirus pandemic on calculations
Measures in response to the corona pandemic have led Swedish consumers to adapt parts of their consumption. In some cases, stores have closed, but it remains possible to purchase products elsewhere. In other cases, consumption has ceased completely. These developments make calculating the consumer price index particularly challenging.
Due to a lack of consumption, prices on items such as tickets to sporting events and international travel have been imputed to some degree. In total, 1.0 percent of the CPI basket was imputed based on the year-on-year change in non-imputed product groups.
For further information about measurement issues related to the coronavirus pandemic, follow the link below.
Meausurement issues related to the coronavirus pandemic (pdf)
Definitions and explanations
The CPIF shows the same price trend as the CPI, but without the direct effects of a changed monetary policy. The CPIF is the Riksbank’s target variable for the inflation target.
The CPIF excluding energy (CPIF-XE) and the CPIF with constant tax (CPIF-CT) are two other measures of inflation produced by Statistics Sweden on behalf of the Riksbank. In the CPIF-XE, energy products are excluded from the CPIF, while in the CPIF-CT the taxes and subsidies associated with the products in the CPIF are kept constant.
The HICP (Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices) is produced by all EU Member States. This measure has a somewhat smaller coverage than the CPI and the CPIF, mainly because parts of households’ housing costs are omitted.
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2020-11-12 at 9:30.
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