Regional population projections, 2022–2040
More older people in all counties and municipalities by 2040
Statistical news from Statistics Sweden 2022-05-25 8.00
Statistics Sweden annually publishes a population projection for Sweden’s counties and municipalities since 2020. The aim is to make the projection available to the public. The sum of the estimated population from the regional population projection is consistent with that from the national projection. The calculations are based on the assumption that the observed development patterns of the population will continue in the future. The calculations do not take into account municipalities’ planned housing construction, company establishment or other future goals and conditions. A projection cannot foretell the exactness of the future. Projections for the counties and municipalities that consider different scenarios are also possible.
The population of Sweden is projected to be just over 11 million by 2040, which is an increase of 913 000 people or 9 percent, compared with 2021. The largest population increase by 2040 is expected in Stockholm County in terms of number and in Uppsala County in terms of percentage. The largest decrease is expected to be in the counties of Västernorrland and Norrbotten, in both number and percentage.
Uneven population growth around the country
Stockholm County, the most populous county in Sweden, is estimated to have the largest increase of population in number by 2040. The population of the county is expected to increase by 379 000 or 16 percent. The largest increase in terms of percentage is expected to be in Uppsala County, by 17 percent. Population increase is also expected in the counties of Halland, Skåne and Västra Götaland, where the increasing speed is faster than the national average. In seven counties, the population is expected to decline by 2040. The largest decrease is expected to be in the counties of Västernorrland and Norrbotten, where the population is expected to decrease by 6 respective 5 percent.
| County | Population 2021 |
Population 2040 |
Change 2021–2040 number |
Change 2021–2040 percent |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Uppsala | 395 000 | 460 700 | 65 700 | 16.6 |
| Stockholm | 2 415 100 | 2 793 700 | 378 500 | 15.7 |
| Halland | 340 200 | 380 200 | 39 900 | 11.7 |
| Skåne | 1 402 400 | 1 563 400 | 160 900 | 11.5 |
| Västra Götaland | 1 744 900 | 1 906 700 | 161 900 | 9.3 |
| Östergötland | 469 700 | 506 300 | 36 600 | 7.8 |
| Västmanland | 279 000 | 299 100 | 20 200 | 7.2 |
| Södermanland | 301 800 | 322 300 | 20 500 | 6.8 |
| Gotland | 61 000 | 65 000 | 4 000 | 6.6 |
| Örebro | 306 800 | 325 100 | 18 300 | 6 |
| Jönköping | 367 100 | 388 300 | 21 200 | 5.8 |
| Kronoberg | 203 300 | 212 800 | 9 400 | 4.6 |
| Västerbotten | 274 600 | 286 300 | 11 800 | 4.3 |
| Jämtland | 132 100 | 132 300 | 200 | 0.2 |
| Dalarna | 288 400 | 288 100 | ‑300 | ‑0.1 |
| Kalmar | 247 200 | 246 000 | ‑1 100 | ‑0.5 |
| Värmland | 283 200 | 281 000 | ‑2 200 | ‑0.8 |
| Gävleborg | 287 800 | 284 300 | ‑3 400 | ‑1.2 |
| Blekinge | 158 900 | 156 100 | ‑2 800 | ‑1.8 |
| Norrbotten | 249 700 | 237 100 | ‑12 600 | ‑5.1 |
| Västernorrland | 244 200 | 230 100 | ‑14 100 | ‑5.8 |
| Sverige | 10 452 300 | 11 365 000 | 912 700 | 8.7 |
Notes: Table is sorted from the highest to the lowest percentage change.
In the 2010s, the level of immigration to Sweden was high. This meant that international immigration surplus had the largest impact on the population growth in all counties in this period. It is expected that during the period 2022–2040 international immigration surplus continues to be the largest contribution to the future population growth in all counties except Gotland. In Gotland, domestic migration is estimated to have the largest impact.
The number of births is expected to be higher than the number of deaths in Sweden in the period 2022–2040. Fertility and mortality in the counties are expected to follow the national patterns while adjusted by the level of the county. As the age structure differs between the counties, more births than deaths are expected in eight counties for the forecasting period. In eight counties more people are expected to move into the county from other parts of Sweden rather than moving out of the county to some other part of Sweden. Uppsala, Östergötland, Skåne and Örebro are the only four counties where not only the excess of births over deaths is expected to contribute to the population growth but also domestic and international migration surplus.
Most counties have both municipalities that are expected to have a population growth and municipalities that are expected to have a population decrease by 2040. The exceptions are Stockholm County and Uppsala County, where the population is expected to increase in all municipalities. Another exception is Västernorrland, where the population is expected to decrease in its all municipalities.
Proportion of older people increasing in all counties
A distinctive feature of the future population is an increasing proportion of older people in the population. The proportion of people aged 65 years and older is larger in 2040 than in 2021 in all counties and most municipalities. The proportion of people aged 80 years and older is larger in 2040 than in 2021 in all counties and municipalities. At the national level, 8 percent of the population are expected to be 80 years or older by 2040, compared to 5 percent today. The increase is due to the decline of mortality as well as the fact that the large cohorts born in the 1940s will become 80 years or older in the coming years. The proportion of people aged 80 years and older is projected to be highest in Gotland County and Kalmar County, at 11 percent. The smallest proportion of older people is projected to be in Stockholm County, just over 6 percent. The proportion of people aged 80 years and older today is 7 percent in Gotland and Kalmar, and 4 percent in Stockholm.
Conditions for the calculations
The regional projections are based on historical data and are in line with the national projection. The calculations do not take into account municipalities’ planned housing construction, company establishment, or other future goals and conditions.
The population increase is calculated as the difference in the size of the population of two given years. All calculations are made with decimal numbers and are presented with four decimals in the Statistical Database.
Population projections for all counties and municipalities are available at scb.se
Statistics on the population are published in the Statistical Database: births, deaths, domestic immigration and emigration, immigrants and emigrants, by age and sex for each year in the period 2022–2070. The population is also presented by Swedish born/foreign born persons, age, and sex, 2022–2070.
Statistical Database
More information is available in the Statistical Database
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