Regional population projections, 2024–2040
Fewer children in almost all counties and municipalities by 2040
Statistical news from Statistics Sweden 2024-06-11 8.00
Statistics Sweden publishes population projections for Sweden’s counties and municipalities since 2020. The aim is to make the projection available to the public. The sum of the estimated population from the regional population projection is consistent with that from the national projection. The calculations are based on the assumption that the observed development patterns of the population will continue in the future. The calculations do not take into account municipalities’ planned housing construction, company establishment or other future goals and conditions. A projection cannot foretell the exactness of the future. Besides, there are many other descriptions for the future population in the counties and municipalities.
The population of Sweden is projected to be just 11 million by 2040, which is an increase of 456 000 people or just over 4 percent, compared with 2023. Most counties are expected to increase their population by 2040, but the change is uneven between different ages. I all counties, except for Uppsala County, the number of children is expected to decrease, while the number of older persons is expected to increase in all counties.
Uneven population growth around the country
Stockholm County, the most populous county in Sweden, is estimated to have the largest increase of population in numbers by 2040. The population of the county is expected to increase by 177 000 or just over 7 percent. The largest increase in terms of percentage is expected to be in Uppsala County, by just under 14 percent. Population increase is also expected in the counties of Halland, Skåne and Västra Götaland, where the increasing speed is faster than the national average. In seven counties, the population is expected to decline by 2040. The largest decrease is expected to be in the counties of Västernorrland and Norrbotten, where the population is expected to decrease by just over 7 percent and just over 6 percent, respectively. Västernorrland County is expected to have the largest population decrease in numbers, almost 18 000 fewer people in 2040 than today.
Most counties have both municipalities that are expected to have a population growth and municipalities that are expected to have a population decrease by 2040. The exceptions are Uppsala County, where the population is expected to increase in all municipalities and the counties of Blekinge and Västernorrland, where the population is expected to decrease in all municipalities.
| County | Population 2023 | Population 2040 | Change 2023–2040, number | Change 2023–2040, percent |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Uppsala | 404 600 | 460 500 | 56 000 | 13.8 |
| Halland | 343 700 | 368 700 | 25 000 | 7.3 |
| Stockholm | 2 454 800 | 2 631 300 | 176 500 | 7.2 |
| Skåne | 1 421 800 | 1 519 600 | 97 800 | 6.9 |
| Västra Götaland | 1 767 000 | 1 860 800 | 93 800 | 5.3 |
| Södermanland | 301 900 | 314 100 | 12 200 | 4 |
| Västerbotten | 278 700 | 289 400 | 10 700 | 3.8 |
| Östergötland | 472 300 | 488 700 | 16 400 | 3.5 |
| Gotland | 61 000 | 63 100 | 2 100 | 3.4 |
| Västmanland | 280 800 | 290 000 | 9 200 | 3.3 |
| Örebro | 308 100 | 317 700 | 9 500 | 3.1 |
| Jönköping | 368 900 | 377 800 | 8 900 | 2.4 |
| Kronoberg | 203 700 | 208 200 | 4 500 | 2.2 |
| Jämtland | 132 600 | 133 600 | 1 000 | 0.8 |
| Värmland | 283 500 | 280 400 | ‑3 100 | ‑1.1 |
| Kalmar | 246 700 | 243 000 | ‑3 700 | ‑1.5 |
| Dalarna | 287 300 | 277 300 | ‑9 900 | ‑3.5 |
| Gävleborg | 285 600 | 275 300 | ‑10 400 | ‑3.6 |
| Blekinge | 158 000 | 150 600 | ‑7 300 | ‑4.6 |
| Norrbotten | 248 500 | 233 200 | ‑15 300 | ‑6.2 |
| Västernorrland | 242 100 | 224 500 | ‑17 700 | ‑7.3 |
| Sweden | 10 551 700 | 11 007 700 | 456 000 | 4.3 |
*Corrected 2024-10-30* Notes: Table is sorted from the highest to the lowest percentage change.
More deaths than births expected in most counties
The number of deaths is expected to be higher than the number of births in Sweden in the period 2024–2040. Fertility and mortality in the counties are expected to follow the national patterns while adjusted by the level of the county. The number of births and deaths is also affected by the as the age structure differs in the counties. In most counties more deaths than births are expected for the forecasting period. The only exceptions are the counties of Stockholm, Uppsala, Skåne and Västra Götaland.
In all counties an international immigration surplus is expected and in just over half of the counties more people are expected to move into the county from other parts of Sweden rather than moving out of the county to some other part of Sweden. Uppsala and Skåne two counties where birth surplus is expected to contribute to the population growth, as well as a surplus from both domestic and international migration.
Proportion of children decreases, and proportion of older people increases in all counties
A distinctive feature of the future population is a decreasing proportion of children and an increasing proportion of older people in the population. The population changes are affected by a decrease in childbearing, a decrease in mortality and the age structure in the population today.
The proportion of people under the age of 25 is expected to decrease in all counties and almost all municipalities by 2040 compared to 2023. The number of people in this age group is also expected to decrease in most counties and municipalities. Uppsala County is the only county where the number of people aged 0–24 is expected to increase. The decrease in these ages is mainly expected in the ages 0–15. At a national level, the proportion is expected to decrease from just over 18 to 16 percent of the population by 2040. The counties of Gotland and Norrbotten are the counties in which the proportion of 0–15 year olds is expected to be lowest by 2040, around 14 percent. Today, the age group account for 16 percent of the population in both counties.
Meanwhile, both the number and the proportion of people aged 70 years and older is expected to be larger in 2040 than in 2023 in all counties and municipalities. It is especially the proportion of people 85 and over that is expected to increase. At the national level, just over 4 percent of the population are expected to be 85 years or older by 2040, compared to just under 3 percent today. The proportion of people aged 85 years and older is projected to be highest in Gotland County, at just over 6 percent. The same proportion today is just over 3 percent.
Conditions for the calculations
The regional projections are based on historical data and are in line with the national projection. The calculations do not take into account municipalities’ planned housing construction, company establishment, or other future goals and conditions.
The population increase is calculated as the difference in the size of the population by 31 December of two given years. All calculations are made with decimal numbers and are presented with four decimals in the Statistical Database.
Population projections for all counties and municipalities are available at scb.se
Statistics on the population are published in the Statistical Database: births, deaths, domestic immigration and emigration, immigrants and emigrants, by age and sex for each year in the period 2024–2070. The population is also presented by Swedish born/foreign born persons, age, and sex, 2024–2070.
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