Consumer Price Index (CPI), January 2023
Inflation rate according to CPI was 11.7 percent in January 2023
Statistical news from Statistics Sweden 2023-02-20 8.00
The CPI 12-month inflation rate was 11.7 percent in January 2023, down from 12.3 percent in December. On a monthly basis, the inflation rate according to the CPI decreased by 1.1 percent from December to January. The CPIF (Consumer price Index with fixed interest rate) 12-month inflation rate was 9,3 in January.
“Electricity prices decreased by 27.4 percent in the last month which also contributed to an easing in the inflation rate from December to January“, says Sofie Öhman, statistician at Statistics Sweden
In brief
| Index Numbers |
Monthly changes, percent |
Annual changes, percent |
|
|---|---|---|---|
| CPI (1980=100) | 391.50 | ‑1.1 | 11.7 |
| CPIF (1987=100) | 251.49 | ‑1.3 | 9.3 |
| CPIF-XE (1987=100) | 232.69 | 0.4 | 8.7 |
- Increased interest rates for households’ mortgages contributed with 2.5 percentage points to the annual inflation rate according to CPI
- Food prices rose by 20.4 percent in the year to January 2023
- The annual inflation rate according to CPIF excluding energy increased from 8.4 percent in December to 8.7 percent in January
- The basket effect to the monthly change in the CPI was 0.05 percent in January 2023
“The inflation rate according to the CPI was higher than CPIF because of the increased mortgages interest rates. This effect is eliminated from CPIF. Otherwise, the two measures are similar”, says Mikael Nordin, statistician at Statistics Sweden.
Declining electricity prices
The CPI decreased by 1.1 percent from December to January. In the corresponding period a year ago, the CPI decreased by 0.5 percent.
The monthly rate of change was mainly affected by electricity prices which decreased by 27.4 percent. Also, the prices of clothing, furniture and transport decreased and made a downward contribution to the monthly rate of change.
The downward contributions were mainly offset by increasing prices for restaurants and hotels, where restaurant visits had the largest upward effect. In addition, increased housing costs such as monthly fee and mortgage interest rates for tenant owned dwellings partly offset the downward contributions.
Food prices also rose, partially explained by price increases for sugar, jam, honey, chocolate and confectionery. Price increases were also noted within health care, recreation and culture as well as miscellaneous goods and services.
The basket used to calculate the CPI is updated in January each year. In January 2023, the contribution of the basket effect to the monthly change in the CPI and CPIF was 0.05 and 0.11 percent respectively.
The table below shows changes on a monthly basis and contributions to the CPI based on the goods and services that had the greatest impact on the CPI in January 2023. The results are presented by COICOP category. COICOP refers to the United Nations classification of household consumption expenditure.
| Category (Coicop) | Monthly changes, percent |
Contribution to CPI Monthly change, percentage points |
|---|---|---|
| Sugar, jam, honey, chocolate and confectionery (01.1.8) | 4.0 | 0.1 |
| Clothing (03.1) | ‑8.5 | ‑0.3 |
| Electricity (04.5.1) | ‑27.4 | ‑1.6 |
| Monthly fee, tenant-owned apartments (part of 04.S.2) | 4.5 | 0.1 |
| Interest expense, tenant-owned apartments (part of 04.y) | 5.2 | 0.2 |
| Furniture (05.1) | ‑2.0 | ‑0.2 |
| Health (06) | 2.1 | 0.1 |
| Transport (07) | ‑0.2 | ‑0.1 |
| Recreation and culture (09) | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| Restaurants and hotels (11) | 0.1 | 0.3 |
| Miscellaneous goods and services (12) | 1.2 | 0.1 |
Decreasing inflation rate in January
The inflation rate according to CPI, that is, the change in CPI from the same month of the previous year, was 11.7 percent in January 2023. This is a decrease from December when the inflation rate was 12.3 percent.
The inflation rate was affected by a broad price increase within food and non-alcoholic beverages, where the main contributions came from milk, cheese and eggs. Also, the housing costs have increased during the last year where the largest contributions came from increased mortgage interest rates and electricity prices. They contributed with 2.5 and 0.9 percentage points respectively.
In addition, transport prices also rose, particularly cars and operation of personal transport equipment. Apart from the products mentioned above, price increases within furnishings and household equipment, restaurant visits, recreation and culture, personal care as well as clothing and footwear have affected the annual rate of inflation.
The inflation rate according to the CPIF, which unlike CPI is not affected by changes in mortgage interest rates, was 9,3 percent in January. This is a decrease compared to December when it was 10.2 percent.
The inflation rate calculated excluding energy products (CPIF-XE) was 8.7 percent in January, which is an increase compared to December when it was 8.4 percent.
| Category (Coicop) | Yearly change, percent |
Contribution yearly change CPI percentage points |
|---|---|---|
| Food and non-alcoholic beverages (01) | 19.6 | 2.6 |
| Clothing and footwear (03) | 7.4 | 0.3 |
| Electricity (04.5.1) | 21.1 | 0.9 |
| Interest expense, owner-occupied housing (part of 04.x) | 76.6 | 1.5 |
| Interest expense, tenant-owned apartments (part of 04.y) | 87.4 | 1.0 |
| Furnishings and household goods (05) | 12.9 | 0.8 |
| Transport (07) | 6.9 | 0.8 |
| Recreation and culture (09) | 7.9 | 1.0 |
| Restaurants (11.1) | 8.9 | 0.7 |
| Personal care (12.1) | 10.8 | 0.3 |
CPI and CPIF, two different measures of inflation
As from the publication of CPI regarding January 2023, the statistical news will shift the main focus from CPIF to CPI. This affects the title and the introduction, but also the tables and diagrams that are presented. CPIF will continue to be presented in the statistical news. The reason behind the change in the statistical news is an increased interest in the general price trend in Sweden as shown by the CPI.
CPI and CPIF are two different measures of inflation that Statistics Sweden calculates. The most common measure of inflation in Sweden is the change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI), but it is the CPIF that is the measure that the Riksbank uses in its inflation target. The CPIF includes the same goods and services as the CPI. The difference between CPI and CPIF is that in CPIF, interest rates for households’ mortgages are kept constant. This means that the effect of changes in interest rates for households’ mortgages is only captured in the CPI and not in the CPIF.
Different measures of inflation
Statistics Sweden calculates different inflation measures for different purposes. The CPIF is the Riksbank’s target variable, while the CPI is the measure used for purposes of compensation.
Changes in 2023
Major changes in the production of the Consumer Price Index will be introduced from 2023. For further information, please see:
Changes in the CPI as from 2023 (pdf)
The basket effect
In January 2023, the contribution of the basket effect to the monthly change in the CPI was 0.05 percent. For further information in Swedish, please see:
Definitions and explanations
The CPIF shows the same price trend as the CPI, but without the direct effects of a changed monetary policy. The CPIF is the Riksbank’s target variable for the inflation target.
The CPIF excluding energy (CPIF-XE) and the CPIF with constant tax (CPIF-CT) are two other measures of inflation produced by Statistics Sweden on behalf of the Riksbank. In the CPIF-XE, energy products are excluded from the CPIF, while in the CPIF-CT the taxes and subsidies associated with the products in the CPIF are kept constant.
The HICP (Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices) is produced by all EU Member States. This measure has a somewhat smaller coverage than the CPI and the CPIF, mainly because parts of households’ housing costs are omitted.
Next publishing will be
2023-03-15 at 8:00.
Statistical Database
More information is available in the Statistical Database
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