• Interest rates for household’s mortgages costs are still contributing considerably to the annual inflation rate.
• Prices of package holidays rose from May to June.
• Electricity and fuel prices have decreased during the past twelve months.
• The annual inflation rate according to CPIF excluding energy, decreased from 3.0 percent in May to 2.3 percent in June.
• An indicator for the inflation named “CPI flash estimate”, will begin to be published this autumn.

Higher prices of package holidays in June

The CPI decreased by 0.1 percent from May to June. In the corresponding period a year ago, prices increased by 1.1 percent.

The decrease in the monthly change in June was affected by lower prices on clothing which is usual for the month of June. Hotel visits and recreational and cultural services declined in price as well.

The falling prices were partly offset by seasonal price increases for package holidays. Also, prices for electricity and transport services rose from May to June.

The table below shows changes on a monthly basis and contributions to the CPI based on the goods and services that had the greatest impact on the CPI in June 2024. The results are presented by COICOP category. COICOP refers to the United Nations classification of household consumption expenditure.

Contributions to the inflation rate in June

The inflation rate according to the CPI, that is, the change in the CPI from the same month last year, was 2.6 percent in June 2024. This is a decrease from May, when the inflation rate was 3.7 percent.

The contributions to the inflation rate in June mostly came from higher housing costs, which was mainly affected by increased mortgage costs as well as rising fees for rented and tenant-owned apartments. The higher housing costs was partly offset by lower electricity prices compared to June 2023.

Furthermore, prices for restaurant visits, health and recreational and cultural services rose in the past twelve months. In addition, there have been price increases in food, clothing and miscellaneous goods and services.

The price increases were partially offset by falling prices of fuel as well as telephone and telefax equipment.

The inflation rate according to CPIF, which unlike CPI is not affected by changes in mortgage interest rates, was 1.3 percent in June.

The inflation rate calculated excluding energy products (CPIF-XE) was 2.3 percent in June which is a decrease compared to May when it was 3.0 percent.

Different measures of inflation

Statistics Sweden calculates different inflation measures for different purposes. The CPIF is the Riksbank’s target variable, while CPI is the measure used for purposes of compensation. The CPIF includes the same goods and services as CPI. The difference between the CPI and the CPIF is that the latter measure holds interest rates for household’s mortgages constant. Consequently, the effect of changed interest rates for household’s mortgages is only captured by the CPI and not the CPIF.

Additional to the CPI and the CPIF, the HICP is also calculated. The HICP is a harmonized measure of inflation used within the EU cooperation. Another index that is calculated each month is CPIF-XE (the CPIF excluding energy products) which is often used as a measure of underlying inflation.