Party Preference Survey in November 2022 – Election today
Political Party Preference Survey, November 2022
Statistical news from Statistics Sweden 2022-12-01 8.00
The Political Party Preference Survey presents election results if a parliamentary election were to be held in November 2022, as well as changes since the 2022 parliamentary election.
In an election in November 2022, the votes would be cast as follows (percentage and margin of uncertainty).
Social Democratic Party (S): 34.6 percent ± 1.2 percentage points
Moderate Party (M): 18.9 percent ± 0.9 percentage points
Sweden Democrats (SD): 18.2 percent ± 0.8 percentage points
Left Party (V): 7.6 percent ± 0.8 percentage points
Centre Party (C): 5.4 percent ± 0.5 percentage points
Christian Democrats (KD): 4.9 percent ± 0.5 percentage points
Green Party (MP): 4.4 percent ± 0.5 percentage points
Liberal Party (L): 4.1 percent ± 0.5 percentage points
Other parties: 1.9 percent ± 0.4 percentage points
The proportion of those in the electorate who were undecided was 13.8 percent (± 1.3 percentage points) in November 2022.
The change refers to a comparison with the 2022 parliamentary election in percentage points. Statistically significant changes are marked with an asterisk (*).
The table below presents estimates of the political parties in November 2022, and changes from the 2022 parliamentary election. Statistically significant changes are marked with an asterisk (*).
Type of question: Which party would you vote for if an election were to be held in the next few days?
| Estimate November 2022 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Party | Percent | Margin of error |
Election 2022 | Change since election 2022 |
| C | 5.4 | ±0.5 | 6.7 | ‑1.3* |
| L | 4.1 | ±0.5 | 4.6 | ‑0.5 |
| M | 18.9 | ±0.9 | 19.1 | ‑0.2 |
| KD | 4.9 | ±0.5 | 5.3 | ‑0.4 |
| S | 34.6 | ±1.2 | 30.3 | 4.3* |
| V | 7.6 | ±0.8 | 6.7 | 0.9* |
| MP | 4.4 | ±0.5 | 5.1 | ‑0.7* |
| SD | 18.2 | ±0.8 | 20.5 | ‑2.3* |
| other | 1.9 | ±0.4 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
* The change is statistically significant.
The political parties in November 2022
Changes in all political parties compared with the September 2022 parliamentary election are described below. The flow of voters between the political parties is also described below as a percentage of the electorate. Only statistically significant flows of voters are presented.
Centre Party
If an election were held in November 2022, the Centre Party would receive 5.4 ± 0.5 percent of the votes. This is a statistically significant decrease compared with the 2022 parliamentary election.
Compared with the 2022 parliamentary election, a statistically significant net loss of about 0.9 percent to the Social Democratic Party was noted.
Liberal Party
The Liberal Party would receive 4.1 ± 0.5 percent of the votes in an election in November 2022. This is not a statistically significant change compared with the 2022 parliamentary election.
In relation to the 2022 parliamentary election, the Liberal Party has a statistically significant net loss of about 0.3 percent to the Social Democratic Party.
Moderate Party
If an election were held in November 2022, the Moderate Party would receive 18.9 ± 0.9 percent of the votes. This is not a statistically significant change compared with the 2022 parliamentary election.
Compared with the 2022 parliamentary election, the Moderate Party has statistically significant net gains of about 0.7 percent from the Sweden Democrats and about 0.3 percent from the Christian Democrats. At the same time, the Moderate Party has a statistically significant net loss of about 0.6 percent to the Social Democratic Party.
Christian Democrats
The Christian Democrats would receive 4.9 ± 0.5 percent of the votes in an election in November 2022. This is not a statistically significant change compared with the 2022 parliamentary election.
Compared with the 2022 parliamentary election, a statistically significant net gain of about 0.3 percent was noted from the Sweden Democrats. At the same time, the Christian Democrats has statistically significant net losses of about 0.3 percent to the Moderate Party and about 0.2 percent to the Social Democratic Party.
Social Democratic Party
The Social Democratic Party would receive 34.6 ± 1.2 percent of the votes in an election in November 2022. This is a statistically significant increase compared with the 2022 parliamentary election.
Compared with the 2022 parliamentary election, there are statistically significant net gains of about 0.9 percent from the Centre Party, about 0.6 percent from the Moderate Party, about 0.5 percent from the Green Party, about 0.3 percent from the Liberal Party and about 0.2 percent from the Christian Democrats.
Left Party
If an election were held in November 2022, the Left Party would receive 7.6 ± 0.8 percent of the votes. This is a statistically significant increase compared with the 2022 parliamentary election.
No statistically significant net flows were noted for the Left Party compared with the 2022 parliamentary election.
Green Party
If an election were held in November 2022, the Green Party would receive 4.4 ± 0.5 percent of the votes. This is a statistically significant decrease compared with the 2022 parliamentary election.
Compared with the 2022 parliamentary election, a statistically significant net loss of about 0.5 percent to the Social Democratic Party was noted.
Sweden Democrats
The Sweden Democrats would receive 18.2 ± 0.8 percent of the votes in an election in November 2022. This is a statistically significant decrease compared with the 2022 parliamentary election.
Compared with the 2022 parliamentary election, statistically significant net losses of about 0.7 percent to the Moderate Party and about 0.3 percent to the Christian Democrats were noted.
Other parties
The “other parties” group would receive 1.9 ± 0.4 percent of the votes in an election in November 2022. This is not a statistically significant change compared with the 2022 parliamentary election.
* Figure 1 illustrates statistically significant net flows in the electorate from the 2022 parliamentary election to November 2022 between the different political parties. The figures indicate statistically significant net gains and net losses as a percentage of the electorate. The flows are based on the answers of all the respondents in the survey who stated which party they voted for in the 2022 parliamentary election and which party they would vote for in an election in November 2022. The flows cannot be used to calculate total changes in parties’ proportion of voters compared with the 2022 election, because only statistically significant flows are presented and because there are flows between parties and the “do not know” group. (Unweighted information is available in table 21 in the table published on 7 December.)
| Party | Women | Men | Total | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Percent | Margin of error |
Percent | Margin of error |
Percent | Margin of error |
||
| C | 6.5 | ±1.0 | 4.3 | ±0.7 | 5.4 | ±0.5 | |
| L | 3.6 | ±0.8 | 4.6 | ±0.9 | 4.1 | ±0.5 | |
| M | 16.9 | ±1.6 | 20.9 | ±1.6 | 18.9 | ±0.9 | |
| KD | 5.3 | ±0.9 | 4.6 | ±0.9 | 4.9 | ±0.5 | |
| S | 40.2 | ±2.1 | 29.0 | ±2.0 | 34.6 | ±1.2 | |
| V | 7.6 | ±1.1 | 7.6 | ±1.3 | 7.6 | ±0.8 | |
| MP | 5.5 | ±0.9 | 3.3 | ±0.7 | 4.4 | ±0.5 | |
| SD | 13.4 | ±1.6 | 23.0 | ±1.8 | 18.2 | ±0.8 | |
| others | 1.0 | ±0.6 | 2.7 | ±0.6 | 1.9 | ±0.4 | |
| C | L | M | KD | S | V | MP | SD | Other | |||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| % | ± | % | ± | % | ± | % | ± | % | ± | % | ± | % | ± | % | ± | % | ± | ||
| Sydsverige | 4.6 | ±1.6 | 4.3 | ±1.4 | 21.7 | ±3.6 | 3.8 | ±1.6 | 36.4 | ±4.4 | 6.4 | ±2.4 | 3.0 | ±1.2 | 18.3 | ±3.6 | 1.5 | ±1.3 | |
| Småland med öarna | 6.8 | ±2.7 | 4.3 | ±2.1 | 19.4 | ±4.2 | 8.1 | ±3.2 | 31.3 | ±5.1 | 4.9 | ±2.7 | 3.9 | ±2.0 | 19.4 | ±4.8 | 1.8 | ±1.5 | |
| Västsverige | 3.7 | ±1.2 | 3.7 | ±1.4 | 18.8 | ±2.8 | 5.8 | ±1.7 | 32.0 | ±3.6 | 9.0 | ±2.3 | 4.1 | ±1.2 | 20.3 | ±3.0 | 2.7 | ±1.4 | |
| Stockholms län exkl. Stockholms kommun | 5.1 | ±1.8 | 5.3 | ±2.1 | 25.1 | ±3.9 | 4.1 | ±1.9 | 34.8 | ±4.5 | 5.4 | ±1.8 | 4.0 | ±1.9 | 14.6 | ±3.5 | 1.6 | ±1.2 | |
| Stockholms kommun | 7.2 | ±2.4 | 7.0 | ±2.9 | 16.4 | ±3.9 | 2.7 | ±1.6 | 33.8 | ±5.0 | 12.1 | ±3.4 | 8.2 | ±2.9 | 10.6 | ±4.0 | .. | .. | |
| Östra Mellansverige | 6.7 | ±2.3 | 3.1 | ±1.2 | 17.7 | ±3.0 | 4.5 | ±1.5 | 33.8 | ±4.0 | 9.4 | ±2.7 | 4.6 | ±1.8 | 18.2 | ±3.5 | 1.8 | ±1.3 | |
| Norra Mellansverige | 4.4 | ±2.0 | 2.7 | ±2.3 | 15.4 | ±4.0 | 5.0 | ±2.3 | 39.4 | ±5.7 | 5.9 | ±2.9 | 4.3 | ±2.6 | 21.6 | ±5.2 | .. | .. | |
| Mellersta och övre Norrland | 6.2 | ±2.3 | 2.8 | ±2.2 | 13.3 | ±4.2 | 6.0 | ±2.8 | 38.4 | ±5.5 | 6.0 | ±2.6 | 4.6 | ±1.9 | 21.3 | ±5.2 | 1.5 | ±1.4 | |
| Total | 5.4 | ±0.5 | 4.1 | ±0.5 | 18.9 | ±0.9 | 4.9 | ±0.5 | 34.6 | ±1.2 | 7.6 | ±0.8 | 4.4 | ±0.5 | 18.2 | ±0.8 | 1.9 | ±0.4 | |
Regional distribution
Sydsverige: Blekinge County and Skåne County
Småland med öarna: Jönköping County, Kronoberg County, Kalmar County and Gotland County
Västsverige: Halland County and Västra Götaland County
Östra Mellansverige: Uppsala County, Södermanland County, Östergötland County, Örebro County and Västmanland County
Norra Mellansverige: Värmland County, Dalarna County and Gävleborg County
Mellersta och övre Norrland: Västernorrland County, Jämtland County, Västerbotten County and Norrbotten County
A table of regional survey results from the current and the previous electoral period is available in Statistics Sweden’s Statistical Database:
Definitions and explanations
The Party Preference Survey in November 2022 was conducted with a national random sample consisting of 9 177 persons entitled to vote in a parliamentary election, without any upper age limit. Answers from these people are collected through telephone interviews and online questionnaires. As in previous surveys, all available telephone numbers, both to mobile phones and fixed phones, have been used to contact the selected persons.
Among the sample persons, 30.7 percent could not be reached, 2.4 percent were unable to participate, and 22.6 percent did not wish to be participate. The total non-response rate was 55.6 percent. The total number of respondents was 4 070, which corresponds to 44.4 percent. A more detailed presentation of the non-response is available in the survey’s Quality declaration.
The data was collected during the period from 27 October to 24 November.
The results are presented in the form of point estimates ± margins of uncertainty. The interval that is formed by the percent estimate ± margin of error here is a 95 percent uncertainty interval, which is an interval that, with 95 percent confidence, includes the actual value of the population, if no systematic errors occur.
Next publishing will be
On 7 December, information about political party preferences in November 2022 will be published, in total and by demographic group. Statistics Sweden has opted to split up the Political Party Preference Survey results to make it possible to publish the “Election today estimate” as quickly as possible after completed data collection, and also to make it clear that there are two different measurements involved. The “Election today estimate” is measured using the question “Which party would you vote for if a parliamentary election was held in the next few days?” while the political party preference is measured using the questions “Do you prefer one of the political parties more than the others?” and “Which party do you prefer the most?”.
The publication on 7 December also contains information about EU and euro preferences, in total and by demographic group, and NATO preferences.
Feel free to use the facts from this statistical news but remember to state Source: Statistics Sweden.