Political Party Preference Survey in May - Political party preferences
Political Party Preference Survey, May 2021
Statistical news from Statistics Sweden 2021-06-02 9.30
The Political Party Preference Survey presents election results if a parliamentary election were held in May 2021, as well as changes since November 2020 and since the 2018 parliamentary election.
In an election in May 2021, the votes would be cast as follows (percentage and margin of uncertainty).
Social Democratic Party (S): 28.2 ± 1.1 procent
Moderate Party (M): 22.4 ± 1.0 procent
Sweden Democrats (SD): 18.9 ± 0.9 procent
Centre Party (C): 9.5 ± 0.8 procent
Left Party (V): 8.9 ± 0.7 procent
Christian Democrats (KD): 4.5 ± 0.5 procent
Green Party (MP): 3.8 ± 0.5 procent
Liberal Party (L): 2.5 ± 0.4 procent
Other parties: 1.4 ± 0.4 procent
In May 2021, just over 13 percent of the electorate is uncertain.
Type of question: Which party would you vote for if an election were to be held in the next few days?
| Estimate May 2021 | Estimate November 2020 | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Party | Percent | Margin of error | Percent | Margin of error | Change since November 2020 | Election 2018 | Change since election 2018 |
| C | 9.5 | ±0.8 | 7.6 | ±0.6 | 1.9* | 8.6 | 0.9* |
| L | 2.5 | ±0.4 | 3.0 | ±0.4 | ‑0.5* | 5.5 | ‑3.0* |
| M | 22.4 | ±1.0 | 22.1 | ±1.0 | 0.3 | 19.8 | 2.6* |
| KD | 4.5 | ±0.5 | 5.4 | ±0.6 | ‑0.9* | 6.3 | ‑1.8* |
| S | 28.2 | ±1.1 | 29.4 | ±1.1 | ‑1.2* | 28.3 | ‑0.1 |
| V | 8.9 | ±0.7 | 9.3 | ±0.7 | ‑0.4 | 8.0 | 0.9* |
| MP | 3.8 | ±0.5 | 4.2 | ±0.6 | ‑0.4 | 4.4 | ‑0.6* |
| SD | 18.9 | ±0.9 | 17.6 | ±0.9 | 1.3* | 17.5 | 1.4* |
| other | 1.4 | ±0.4 | 1.5 | ±0.5 | ‑0.1 | 1.5 | ‑0.1 |
* The change is statistically significant.
The political parties in May 2021
Changes for all political parties compared with the November 2020 survey and with the 2018 parliamentary election are described below. The flow of voters between the political parties is also described as a percentage of the electorate. Only statistically significant flows of voters are presented.
Centre Party
If an election were held in May 2021, the Centre Party would receive 9.5 ± 0.8 percent of the votes. This is a statistically significant increase compared with both November 2020 and the 2018 parliamentary election.
Compared with November 2020, the Centre Party has a statistically significant net gain of about 0.5 percent of the electorate from the Liberal Party.
Compared with the 2018 parliamentary election, the Centre Party noted statistically significant net gains of about 1.0 percent from the Liberal Party and about 0.3 percent from the Green Party.
Liberal Party
The Liberal Party would receive 2.5 ± 0.4 percent of the votes in an election in May 2021. This is a statistically significant decrease, both compared with November 2020 and with the 2018 parliamentary election.
Compared with November 2020, the Liberal Party has a statistically significant net loss of about 0.5 percent of the electorate to the Centre Party.
Compared with the 2018 parliamentary election, the Liberal Party has statistically significant net losses of about 1.3 percent to the Moderate Party, about 1.0 percent to the Centre Party, and about 0.6 percent to the Social Democratic Party.
Moderate Party
If an election were held in May 2021, the Moderate Party would receive 22.4 ± 1.0 percent of the votes. This is not a statistically significant change compared with November 2020, while it is a statistically significant increase compared with the 2018 parliamentary election.
Compared with the 2018 parliamentary election, the Moderate Party has statistically significant net gains of about 1.4 percent from the Christian Democrats, about 1.3 percent from the Liberal Party, and about 0.7 percent from the Social Democratic Party.
Christian Democrats
The Christian Democrats would receive 4.5 ± 0.5 percent of the votes in an election in May 2021. This is a statistically significant decrease, both compared with November 2020 and with the 2018 parliamentary election.
Compared with the 2018 parliamentary election, a statistically significant net loss of about 1.4 percent was noted to the Moderate Party.
Social Democratic Party
The Social Democrats would receive 28.2 ± 1.1 percent of the votes in an election in May 2021. This is a statistically significant decrease compared with November 2020, but it is not a statistically significant change compared with the 2018 parliamentary election.
Compared with the 2018 parliamentary election, the Social Democratic Party noted statistically significant net gains of about 0.6 percent from the Liberal Party and about 0.4 percent from the Green Party. At the same time, the Social Democratic Party noted statistically significant net losses of about 0.7 percent to the Moderate Party and about 0.6 percent to the Sweden Democrats.
Left Party
If an election were held in May 2021, the Left Party would receive 8.9 ± 0.7 percent of the votes. This is not a statistically significant change compared with November 2020, but it is a statistically significant increase compared with the 2018 parliamentary election.
Compared with the 2018 parliamentary election, the Left Party has statistically significant net gains of about 0.4 percent from the Green Party and about 0.2 percent from “other parties”.
Green Party
If an election were held in May 2021, the Green Party would receive 3.8 ± 0.5 percent of the votes. This is not a statistically significant change compared with November 2020, while it is a statistically significant decrease compared with the 2018 parliamentary election.
Compared with the 2018 parliamentary election, the Green Party noted statistically significant net losses of about 0.4 percent to the Social Democratic Party, about 0.4 percent to the Left Party, and about 0.3 percent to the Centre Party.
Sweden Democrats
The Sweden Democrats would receive 18.9 ± 0.9 percent of the votes in an election in May 2021. This is a statistically significant increase compared with both November 2020 and the 2018 parliamentary election.
Compared with the 2018 parliamentary election, the Sweden Democrats noted a statistically significant net gain of about 0.6 percent from the Social Democratic Party.
Other parties
The group “Other parties” would receive 1.4 ± 0.4 percent of the votes in an election in May 2021. This is not a statistically significant change, neither compared with November 2020 nor with the 2018 parliamentary election.
Compared with the 2018 parliamentary election, a statistically significant net loss of about 0.2 percent is noted to the Left Party.
* Figure 1 illustrates statistically significant net flows from November 2020 to May 2021 between the different parties. The figures indicate significant net gains and net losses as a percentage of the electorate. The flows are based on all those who stated which party they would vote for or answered “do not know” when asked which party they would vote for in an election in each survey round. The flows cannot be used to calculate total changes in parties’ proportion of voters compared with November 2020, because only statistically significant flows are presented and because there are flows between parties and the “do not know” group. (Unweighted information is available in table 22 in the table to be published on 8 June.)
Figure 2 Net flows from the 2018 parliamentary election to May 2021. Percent of the electorate
* Figure 2 illustrates statistically significant net flows in the electorate from the 2018 parliamentary election to May 2021 for the different parties. The figures indicate statistically significant net gains and net losses as a percentage of the electorate. The flows are based on the answers of all the respondents in the survey who stated which party they voted for in the 2018 parliamentary election and which party they would vote for in an election in May 2021. The flows cannot be used to calculate total changes in parties’ proportion of voters compared with the 2018 election, because only statistically significant flows are presented and because there are flows between parties and the “do not know” group. (Unweighted information is available in table 21 in the table to be published on 8 June.)
| Party | Women | Men | Total | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Percent | Margin of error | Percent | Margin of error | Percent | Margin of error | ||
| C | 10.5 | ±1.3 | 8.5 | ±1.1 | 9.5 | ±0.8 | |
| L | 2.5 | ±0.6 | 2.5 | ±0.6 | 2.5 | ±0.4 | |
| M | 22.3 | ±1.7 | 22.5 | ±1.6 | 22.4 | ±1.0 | |
| KD | 4.6 | ±0.9 | 4.4 | ±0.8 | 4.5 | ±0.5 | |
| S | 32.5 | ±1.9 | 23.8 | ±1.7 | 28.2 | ±1.1 | |
| V | 11.1 | ±1.3 | 6.7 | ±0.9 | 8.9 | ±0.7 | |
| MP | 4.7 | ±0.8 | 2.9 | ±0.8 | 3.8 | ±0.5 | |
| SD | 10.8 | ±1.3 | 26.9 | ±1.8 | 18.9 | ±0.9 | |
| others | 0.9 | ±0.4 | 1.8 | ±0.7 | 1.4 | ±0.4 | |
| C | L | M | KD | S | V | MP | SD | Other | |||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| % | ± | % | ± | % | ± | % | ± | % | ± | % | ± | % | ± | % | ± | % | ± | ||
| Sydsverige | 9.4 | ±2.4 | 1.8 | ±1.0 | 22.0 | ±3.3 | 2.8 | ±1.3 | 27.3 | ±3.9 | 7.1 | ±2.1 | 3.1 | ±1.5 | 25.2 | ±3.8 | .. | .. | |
| Småland med öarna | 12.9 | ±3.3 | 1.1 | ±1.0 | 23.3 | ±4.6 | 5.3 | ±2.2 | 29.4 | ±4.8 | 5.5 | ±2.5 | 3.1 | ±1.7 | 17.8 | ±4.3 | .. | .. | |
| Västsverige | 8.7 | ±1.9 | 2.8 | ±1.0 | 23.8 | ±2.9 | 5.5 | ±1.5 | 25.4 | ±2.9 | 9.1 | ±1.9 | 4.8 | ±1.7 | 18.7 | ±2.9 | 1.2 | ±0.8 | |
| Stockholm County, excluding Stockholm municipality | 8.0 | ±2.5 | 2.5 | ±1.3 | 31.2 | ±4.0 | 5.2 | ±2.2 | 23.5 | ±3.8 | 7.0 | ±2.2 | 4.4 | ±1.8 | 17.0 | ±3.5 | .. | .. | |
| Stockholm municipality | 10.6 | ±3.0 | 4.4 | ±1.8 | 20.2 | ±3.9 | 2.8 | ±1.4 | 26.6 | ±4.3 | 16.0 | ±3.3 | 6.3 | ±2.3 | 11.6 | ±3.4 | 1.6 | ±1.2 | |
| Östra Mellansverige | 8.9 | ±2.1 | 2.1 | ±1.0 | 21.9 | ±3.1 | 4.9 | ±1.5 | 27.6 | ±3.4 | 8.6 | ±2.0 | 3.6 | ±1.3 | 20.9 | ±3.4 | 1.3 | ±1.0 | |
| Norra Mellansverige | 8.3 | ±2.8 | 2.0 | ±1.8 | 19.2 | ±4.1 | 4.3 | ±2.0 | 32.3 | ±5.2 | 9.9 | ±3.5 | 1.5 | ±1.1 | 19.7 | ±4.4 | 2.8 | ±1.8 | |
| Mellersta och övre Norrland | 11.2 | ±3.5 | 3.2 | ±1.7 | 12.9 | ±3.5 | 4.7 | ±2.1 | 39.9 | ±5.1 | 9.6 | ±2.9 | 2.2 | ±1.4 | 15.7 | ±3.9 | .. | .. | |
| Total | 9.5 | ±0.8 | 2.5 | ±0.4 | 22.4 | ±1.0 | 4.5 | ±0.5 | 28.2 | ±1.1 | 8.9 | ±0.7 | 3.8 | ±0.5 | 18.9 | ±0.9 | 1.4 | ±0.4 | |
Regional distribution
Sydsverige: Blekinge County and Skåne County
Småland med öarna: Jönköping County, Kronoberg County, Kalmar County, and Gotland County
Västsverige: Halland County and Västra Götaland County
Östra Mellansverige: Uppsala County, Södermanland County, Östergötland County, Örebro County, and Västmanland County
Norra Mellansverige: Värmland County, Dalarna County, and Gävleborg County
Mellersta och övre Norrland: Västernorrland County, Jämtland County, Västerbotten County, and Norrbotten County
A table of regional survey results from the current and the previous electoral period is available in Statistics Sweden’s Statistical Database: Statistical Database
Definitions and explanations
The Party Preference Survey in May 2021 was conducted with a national random sample consisting of 9 216 people entitled to vote in a parliamentary election, without an upper age limit. Answers from these people are collected through telephone interviews and online questionnaires. As in previous surveys, all available telephone numbers, both to mobile phones and fixed phones, have been used to contact the selected persons.
Among the sample persons, 29.3 percent could not be reached, 2.5 percent were unable to participate, and 17.8 percent did not wish to participate. The total non-response rate was 49.5 percent. The total number of respondents was 4 656, which corresponds to 50.5 percent. A more detailed presentation of the non-response will be made available in conjunction with the publication on 8 June.
The data was collected during the period from 28 April to 27 May.
The results are presented in the form of point estimates ± margins of uncertainty. The interval that is formed by the percent estimate ± margin of uncertainty here is a 95 percent uncertainty interval, which is an interval that, with 95 percent probability, includes the actual value of the population, if no systematic errors occur.
Next publishing will be
On 8 June, information about Political party preferences in May 2021 will be published, in total and by different demographic groups. Statistics Sweden has opted to split up the Political Party Preference Survey results to make it possible to publish “Election today estimate” as quickly as possible after completed data collection, and also to make it clear that there are two different measurements involved. “Election today estimate” is measured using the question “Which party would you vote for if a parliamentary election was held in the next few days?” while the political party preference is measured using the questions “Do you prefer one of the political parties more than the others?” and “Which party do you prefer the most?”.
The publication on 8 June will also contain information about EU and euro preferences, in total and by different demographic groups.
Feel free to use the facts from this statistical news but remember to state Source: Statistics Sweden.