Labour Force Surveys (LFS) 2023:3 – Theme: Long-term unemployed 2005–2023
Still many long-term unemployed after the pandemic
Statistical news from Statistics Sweden 2023-12-06 8.00
A new report from Statistics Sweden’s labour force surveys (LFS) shows that there was a sharp rise in long-term unemployment among people aged 20–64 during the pandemic and it has so far not come down to pre-covid19 levels. A significant part of the increase has occurred among foreign born, and especially among foreign born women. The probability of getting a job decreases with time in unemployment and the job chance also decreases with age. Long-term unemployed who get jobs tend to go into service occupations and the majority get temporary employment.
– Long-term unemployment has not recovered after the pandemic. We also see a dual labour market where the long-term unemployed not only find it more difficult to get a job, but those who do find jobs get employment with less security, says Charlotta Olofsson, statistician at the labour force surveys at Statistics Sweden.
Sharp rise in long-term unemployment during the pandemic
In the third quarter of 2023, the number of unemployed amounted to approximately 350,000 among people aged 20–64, of whom just over a third were long-term unemployed. The long-term unemployed, in turn, accounted for a fifth of all long-term jobless people, which is a measure that includes both the long-term unemployed and people not in the labor force who have not worked for a long time, with the largest groups being long-term sick persons and full-time students.
There was a sharp rise in long-term unemployment during the pandemic and it has remained at a higher level even after the corona crisis. The broader measure of long-term jobless people has, on the other hand, been less sensitive to economic fluctuations and it shows a gradual downward trend over the period 2005–2023. It is mainly individuals who stated that they did not work as a result of long-term health problems that has decreased over time.
Source: Statistics Sweden, Labour Force Survey
Long-term unemployment has been higher among men than women, and recently it is among older men that long-term unemployment has increased. At the same time, there are more women among long-term jobless people, of which long-term health problems were the most common cause. When gender, country of birth and level of education are examined, the results further show that a large part of the increase in long-term unemployment as a result of the pandemic has occurred among foreign-born people with pre-secondary education, and especially among women in this group. Possible explanations are that a large proportion of those born abroad work in the private service sector, which was heavily affected by the pandemic, and that those born abroad are overrepresented among people with temporary employment.
A dual labour market
Average data over the period 2015–2023 show that the chance of getting a job decreases with time in unemployment, which may be linked to the loss of value of one's education, experience and professional networks. Job opportunities also decrease with age and are on average lower among foreign-born. Those who go from long-term unemployment to employment also tend to work in service occupations such as care occupations, cleaning, restaurants and sales. This applies especially to women and foreign-born. The jobs that women go to are concentrated to fewer occupations, while men have a greater spread across occupational categories. More than three out of five long-term unemployed also get temporary employment, and this does not include trial employment that leads to permanent positions. This thus shows a dual labour market where the long-term unemployed not only find it more difficult to get a job, but those who do find jobs get employment with less security.
Risk factors for long-term unemployment
Results from a statistical model on unemployment durations confirm that risks of long-term unemployment are linked to older age, non-European background but also to lack of previous work experience. These constitute the largest individual risk factors when other factors are held constant in terms of gender, age, region of birth, degree of urbanization and level of education as well as having worked previously. Being born in another European country and having only a pre-secondary education are also significant risk factors.
Fact: About the statistics
The report is based on quarterly and annual data from the labour force surveys (LFS). The labor force surveys are a sample survey that describes the development of the labor market among Sweden's population aged 15–74.
Definitions and explanations
Individuals are defined as long-term unemployed if they have been unemployed for at least 27 weeks. Correspondingly, long-term jobless people includes long-term unemployed and people not in the labour force who have not worked for more than 6 months. This also includes people who stated that they have never worked.
Publication
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